Posts written by David Scott (1765)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 28, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.50 9.44 2.10
Wellington 9.80 8.72 1.10
Auckland 4.99 2.15 2.80
North Harbour 4.73 7.75 -3.00
Waikato 2.76 3.71 -1.00
Bay of Plenty 2.72 4.55 -1.80
Tasman 2.71 2.20 0.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.23 5.12 -2.90
Taranaki -0.74 -2.98 2.20
Otago -1.01 0.62 -1.60
Northland -5.45 -3.92 -1.50
Counties Manukau -6.02 -7.44 1.40
Southland -10.86 -12.27 1.40
Manawatu -13.88 -14.18 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Northland Aug 25 31 – 30 -7.20 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 26 41 – 22 3.50 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 26 26 – 29 0.30 FALSE
4 Otago vs. Southland Aug 26 31 – 21 13.70 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 27 31 – 36 6.40 FALSE
6 Tasman vs. North Harbour Aug 27 20 – 15 -0.10 FALSE
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 27 37 – 15 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Manawatu Aug 30 Auckland 21.90

 

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August 22, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.93 12.99 0.90
Storm 8.42 11.21 -2.80
Broncos 6.22 -5.92 12.10
Sharks 4.45 4.50 -0.10
Cowboys 2.65 6.23 -3.60
Rabbitohs 1.98 9.35 -7.40
Knights 1.75 -9.53 11.30
Warriors 1.75 -11.12 12.90
Roosters 0.34 7.64 -7.30
Eels -1.65 6.78 -8.40
Sea Eagles -2.86 -5.26 2.40
Raiders -4.05 1.98 -6.00
Dragons -6.25 -2.73 -3.50
Titans -6.97 -6.32 -0.70
Dolphins -7.64 -10.00 2.40
Wests Tigers -10.81 -13.52 2.70
Bulldogs -13.25 -8.29 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 17 12 – 32 4.00 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 18 29 – 22 11.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 18 12 – 34 4.00 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Aug 19 24 – 23 -0.50 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 19 14 – 40 -16.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Storm Aug 19 28 – 38 -12.10 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 20 29 – 10 0.50 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 36 – 24 12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels Aug 24 Panthers 18.60
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 25 Warriors 14.00
3 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -7.30
4 Storm vs. Titans Aug 26 Storm 18.40
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 26 Roosters 14.10
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 26 Broncos -7.30
7 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 Sea Eagles -7.40
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 27 Knights 0.30

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

I got caught by the early start to the Top 14, so my published predictions start from Round 2. You can see below the predictions for Round1.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.57 7.24 -0.70
Stade Rochelais 5.96 6.40 -0.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.11 4.07 0.00
Racing 92 3.38 3.42 -0.00
Stade Francais 3.32 2.62 0.70
Lyon 3.25 2.97 0.30
Toulon 2.83 3.11 -0.30
Montpellier 2.53 2.09 0.40
Clermont 0.73 1.47 -0.70
Section Paloise -0.16 -0.44 0.30
Bayonne -0.65 -1.32 0.70
Castres Olympique -0.67 -0.39 -0.30
USA Perpignan -4.34 -3.64 -0.70
US Oyonnax -9.26 -10.00 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Aug 19 26 – 7 -2.10 FALSE
2 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Aug 19 23 – 18 5.90 TRUE
3 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Aug 20 7 – 29 0.20 FALSE
4 US Oyonnax vs. Clermont Aug 20 36 – 17 -5.00 FALSE
5 Lyon vs. Toulon Aug 20 27 – 15 6.40 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Aug 20 24 – 23 6.50 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Aug 21 26 – 15 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais vs. US Oyonnax Aug 26 Stade Francais 19.10
2 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Aug 26 Stade Rochelais 9.20
3 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Aug 27 Bordeaux Begles 11.30
4 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Aug 27 Clermont 11.60
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Aug 27 Section Paloise 3.00
6 Toulon vs. Bayonne Aug 27 Toulon 10.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Aug 28 Stade Toulousain 10.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.37 9.44 2.90
Wellington 9.32 8.72 0.60
North Harbour 5.30 7.75 -2.50
Auckland 3.86 2.15 1.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.36 5.12 -1.80
Bay of Plenty 2.36 4.55 -2.20
Waikato 1.84 3.71 -1.90
Tasman 1.75 2.20 -0.50
Taranaki -0.38 -2.98 2.60
Otago -0.61 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.55 -3.92 -0.60
Counties Manukau -5.11 -7.44 2.30
Southland -11.26 -12.27 1.00
Manawatu -14.79 -14.18 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 18 32 – 19 -7.30 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Auckland Aug 19 23 – 43 8.20 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Southland Aug 19 39 – 17 24.00 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 19 68 – 26 28.10 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 19 32 – 5 -7.80 FALSE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 20 33 – 32 8.60 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Aug 20 17 – 29 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Tasman Aug 23 Wellington 10.60

 

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August 17, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.34 9.44 1.90
Wellington 9.54 8.72 0.80
North Harbour 7.17 7.75 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay 4.20 5.12 -0.90
Tasman 4.00 2.20 1.80
Bay of Plenty 3.79 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.25 3.71 -0.50
Auckland 1.98 2.15 -0.20
Otago -1.45 0.62 -2.10
Taranaki -1.78 -2.98 1.20
Counties Manukau -6.53 -7.44 0.90
Northland -6.79 -3.92 -2.90
Southland -11.48 -12.27 0.80
Manawatu -13.76 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Aug 16 35 – 32 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 18 Bay of Plenty -7.30
2 North Harbour vs. Auckland Aug 19 North Harbour 8.20
3 Wellington vs. Southland Aug 19 Wellington 24.00
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 19 Canterbury 28.10
5 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 19 Tasman -7.80
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 20 Hawke’s Bay 8.60
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Aug 20 Waikato 8.00

 

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August 15, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.27 12.99 0.30
Storm 8.66 11.21 -2.50
Broncos 6.22 -5.92 12.10
Cowboys 4.05 6.23 -2.20
Rabbitohs 3.11 9.35 -6.20
Sharks 3.06 4.50 -1.40
Warriors 2.26 -11.12 13.40
Knights 0.61 -9.53 10.10
Eels -0.16 6.78 -6.90
Roosters -1.15 7.64 -8.80
Sea Eagles -3.37 -5.26 1.90
Raiders -4.02 1.98 -6.00
Titans -6.31 -6.32 0.00
Dragons -6.49 -2.73 -3.80
Dolphins -7.47 -10.00 2.50
Wests Tigers -10.97 -13.52 2.50
Bulldogs -13.28 -8.29 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 10 12 – 24 -14.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 11 36 – 6 9.90 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 11 54 – 10 5.30 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 12 26 – 14 12.80 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 12 22 – 30 -7.00 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 12 30 – 14 8.20 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 13 48 – 2 12.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 13 42 – 6 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 17 Cowboys 4.00
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 18 Warriors 11.60
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 18 Eels 4.00
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Aug 19 Dolphins -0.50
5 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 19 Panthers -16.60
6 Dragons vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -12.10
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 20 Knights 0.50
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 Raiders 12.30

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.34 9.44 1.90
Wellington 9.54 8.72 0.80
North Harbour 7.17 7.75 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay 4.33 5.12 -0.80
Tasman 4.00 2.20 1.80
Bay of Plenty 3.79 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.12 3.71 -0.60
Auckland 1.98 2.15 -0.20
Otago -1.45 0.62 -2.10
Taranaki -1.78 -2.98 1.20
Counties Manukau -6.53 -7.44 0.90
Northland -6.79 -3.92 -2.90
Southland -11.48 -12.27 0.80
Manawatu -13.76 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 24 – 25 -9.80 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 12 19 – 15 3.60 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 12 5 – 28 -5.50 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 12 24 – 12 3.00 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Aug 13 24 – 28 -0.40 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Northland Aug 13 15 – 15 -2.20 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 13 17 – 26 -9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Aug 16 Hawke’s Bay 4.20

 

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August 10, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.94 9.44 1.50
Wellington 8.29 8.72 -0.40
North Harbour 7.57 7.75 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.30 5.12 0.20
Bay of Plenty 3.74 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.16 3.71 -0.60
Tasman 3.02 2.20 0.80
Auckland 2.97 2.15 0.80
Otago -0.19 0.62 -0.80
Taranaki -1.79 -2.98 1.20
Northland -6.55 -3.92 -2.60
Counties Manukau -7.50 -7.44 -0.10
Southland -11.72 -12.27 0.60
Manawatu -13.75 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 13 – 28 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -9.80
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 12 Bay of Plenty 3.60
3 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 12 Wellington -5.50
4 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 12 Tasman 3.00
5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Aug 13 Canterbury -0.40
6 Southland vs. Northland Aug 13 Northland -2.20
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 13 Taranaki -9.00

 

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August 7, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.50 12.99 0.50
Storm 6.81 11.21 -4.40
Broncos 4.17 -5.92 10.10
Cowboys 4.05 6.23 -2.20
Rabbitohs 3.20 9.35 -6.20
Warriors 2.15 -11.12 13.30
Eels 1.89 6.78 -4.90
Sharks 1.85 4.50 -2.70
Knights -0.68 -9.53 8.80
Roosters -1.72 7.64 -9.40
Raiders -2.18 1.98 -4.20
Sea Eagles -3.60 -5.26 1.70
Titans -5.10 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.57 -2.73 -3.80
Dolphins -6.90 -10.00 3.10
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.52 2.70
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 26 – 16 4.00 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 18 – 28 0.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 26 – 6 8.10 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 14 – 30 5.40 FALSE
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 28 – 30 -3.60 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 16 – 26 6.40 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 26 – 20 12.40 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 22 – 18 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 10 Panthers -14.10
2 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 11 Sharks 9.90
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 11 Broncos 5.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 12 Rabbitohs 12.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 12 Warriors -7.00
6 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 12 Roosters 8.20
7 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 13 Storm 12.00
8 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 13 Knights 14.30

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.94 9.44 1.50
Wellington 8.29 8.72 -0.40
North Harbour 7.57 7.75 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.30 5.12 0.20
Bay of Plenty 3.74 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.16 3.71 -0.60
Tasman 3.02 2.20 0.80
Auckland 2.97 2.15 0.80
Otago -0.19 0.62 -0.80
Taranaki -2.92 -2.98 0.10
Northland -5.42 -3.92 -1.50
Counties Manukau -7.50 -7.44 -0.10
Southland -11.72 -12.27 0.60
Manawatu -13.75 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 27 – 15 4.60 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 37 – 29 7.50 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 23 – 21 0.40 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 6 – 22 -19.90 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 11 – 43 -10.40 TRUE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 30 – 32 5.40 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 21 – 29 -13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 0.50

 

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