April 19, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 24

Team Ratings for Week 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.18 14.79 2.40
Munster 10.28 10.69 -0.40
Ulster 8.54 7.41 1.10
Bulls 6.71 3.65 3.10
Stormers 5.45 0.00 5.40
Edinburgh 5.05 2.90 2.20
Sharks 4.84 -0.07 4.90
Glasgow 3.38 3.69 -0.30
Connacht -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Scarlets -0.96 -0.77 -0.20
Lions -1.45 -3.91 2.50
Ospreys -2.22 0.94 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -0.11 -5.60
Benetton -6.38 -4.50 -1.90
Dragons -9.37 -6.92 -2.40
Zebre -18.76 -13.47 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Dragons Apr 17 27 – 38 15.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 24

Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Glasgow Apr 23 Stormers 8.60
2 Ulster vs. Munster Apr 23 Ulster 3.30
3 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Apr 23 Edinburgh 30.30
4 Bulls vs. Benetton Apr 24 Bulls 19.60
5 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 24 Scarlets -3.40
6 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 24 Lions 5.60
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Apr 24 Cardiff Rugby 1.50
8 Sharks vs. Leinster Apr 24 Leinster -5.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »