NRL Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 16.86 | 19.20 | -2.30 |
| Panthers | 14.71 | 14.26 | 0.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 12.60 | 15.81 | -3.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 8.54 | 10.99 | -2.50 |
| Eels | 3.85 | 2.54 | 1.30 |
| Roosters | 2.21 | 2.23 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | 1.84 | -1.10 | 2.90 |
| Titans | -0.61 | 1.05 | -1.70 |
| Raiders | -3.61 | -1.10 | -2.50 |
| Knights | -5.81 | -6.54 | 0.70 |
| Dragons | -7.39 | -7.99 | 0.60 |
| Warriors | -7.89 | -8.99 | 1.10 |
| Cowboys | -8.48 | -12.27 | 3.80 |
| Broncos | -8.87 | -8.90 | 0.00 |
| Bulldogs | -9.80 | -10.25 | 0.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.13 | -10.94 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Apr 14 | 12 – 18 | 9.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Apr 15 | 36 – 16 | 22.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Apr 15 | 40 – 12 | 26.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Titans | Apr 16 | 26 – 18 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Storm vs. Sharks | Apr 16 | 34 – 18 | 18.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Apr 17 | 22 – 14 | 16.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Knights | Apr 17 | 21 – 16 | 0.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 18 | 20 – 21 | 19.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 21 | Sea Eagles | -3.70 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Apr 22 | Broncos | 3.90 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Apr 23 | Titans | -4.90 |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 23 | Rabbitohs | -19.70 |
| 5 | Knights vs. Eels | Apr 24 | Eels | -6.70 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Apr 24 | Panthers | 21.30 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | Roosters | -6.60 |
| 8 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | Storm | 30.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Sir,
I am very much interested with the score line for every game. Either its over or under 40 points in total, depending on the number of points scored by each nrl team.
I need points predictions. Statistics with correlated predictions.
2 years ago
Sorry, not happening. Remember what you paid for these predictions
2 years ago
I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW THE SCORE MARGNE FOR EVERY GAMES WITH THE PREDICATION POINT THAT EACH TEAM WILL GET. THANKS
2 years ago
Sir could you please highlight the predicted winning teams for this NRL round 7 game as you’ve listed in accordance with their percentage levels of winning.
2 years ago
Interested nrl all nrl game and predictions
2 years ago
Thankyou
2 years ago
Could kindly email me all predictions score to me round by round. I am pretty interested.
2 years ago