Posts written by David Scott (1765)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 13, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.20 12.99 0.20
Rabbitohs 8.13 9.35 -1.20
Storm 6.39 11.21 -4.80
Eels 5.28 6.78 -1.50
Broncos 1.04 -5.92 7.00
Sharks 0.53 4.50 -4.00
Cowboys -0.12 6.23 -6.30
Roosters -0.68 7.64 -8.30
Raiders -1.46 1.98 -3.40
Dragons -1.87 -2.73 0.90
Sea Eagles -2.62 -5.26 2.60
Warriors -3.00 -11.12 8.10
Titans -5.91 -6.32 0.40
Dolphins -6.87 -10.00 3.10
Wests Tigers -7.29 -13.52 6.20
Knights -7.83 -9.53 1.70
Bulldogs -8.91 -8.29 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 28 – 12 2.60 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Warriors Jun 09 14 – 36 11.20 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Jun 09 58 – 18 3.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 36 – 30 -8.90 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 10 24 – 20 13.20 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 10 6 – 30 -9.00 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 11 54 – 10 4.70 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 12 12 – 34 -9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 16 Panthers -10.30
2 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 17 Roosters -4.20
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 17 Eels 10.90
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jun 17 Storm -10.70
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 18 Sharks 12.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.12 6.34 1.80
La Rochelle 7.40 6.88 0.50
Bordeaux Begles 4.76 5.27 -0.50
Racing 92 4.26 4.86 -0.60
Toulon 3.84 4.09 -0.30
Lyon 3.44 3.10 0.30
Stade Francais 2.76 -1.05 3.80
Montpellier 2.67 4.18 -1.50
Clermont 2.03 4.05 -2.00
Castres Olympique 0.04 2.87 -2.80
Section Paloise -0.21 -2.12 1.90
Aviron Bayonnais -1.41 -4.26 2.80
USA Perpignan -3.60 -2.75 -0.90
Brive -6.85 -4.20 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Jun 10 41 – 14 2.30 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 11 24 – 13 1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 18 Stade Toulousain -0.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.44 17.95 -0.50
Blues 13.22 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 13.03 8.81 4.20
Hurricanes 10.03 9.59 0.40
Brumbies 6.51 6.64 -0.10
Highlanders 1.30 5.04 -3.70
Reds -0.05 1.89 -1.90
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -4.61 -6.19 1.60
Western Force -6.15 -5.54 -0.60
Fijian Drua -9.21 -10.50 1.30
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -8.91 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jun 09 41 – 12 20.00 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 10 29 – 20 19.50 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Jun 10 49 – 8 31.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 37 – 33 1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 16 Crusaders 7.70
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 17 Chiefs 12.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.78 4.67 0.10
Pumas 3.94 2.84 1.10
Sharks 1.51 -1.30 2.80
Bulls 0.92 3.43 -2.50
Western Province 0.59 -3.24 3.80
Griquas -2.59 1.39 -4.00
Lions -4.44 -7.79 3.40
Griffons -14.70 -10.00 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Jun 09 22 – 39 -0.30 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Griffons Jun 10 17 – 27 17.90 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 11 27 – 31 0.90 FALSE
4 Western Province vs. Sharks Jun 11 44 – 5 -2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 18 Cheetahs 7.90
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Jun 18 Sharks 1.60

 

June 6, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.24 12.99 -0.80
Rabbitohs 9.09 9.35 -0.30
Eels 4.45 6.78 -2.30
Storm 4.31 11.21 -6.90
Sharks 2.60 4.50 -1.90
Broncos 1.69 -5.92 7.60
Raiders 0.36 1.98 -1.60
Roosters 0.29 7.64 -7.40
Cowboys -0.12 6.23 -6.30
Dragons -2.82 -2.73 -0.10
Sea Eagles -4.59 -5.26 0.70
Warriors -4.81 -11.12 6.30
Dolphins -4.90 -10.00 5.10
Wests Tigers -6.42 -13.52 7.10
Titans -6.79 -6.32 -0.50
Bulldogs -8.08 -8.29 0.20
Knights -8.48 -9.53 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 02 19 – 20 -4.60 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Jun 03 30 – 8 3.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 03 28 – 46 -11.90 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 03 12 – 20 5.70 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 04 25 – 24 13.00 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Jun 04 45 – 20 -4.80 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 04 26 – 18 19.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 Titans 2.60
2 Raiders vs. Warriors Jun 09 Raiders 11.20
3 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Jun 09 Sea Eagles 3.30
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 Rabbitohs -8.90
5 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 10 Broncos 13.20
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 10 Panthers -9.00
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 11 Storm 4.70
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 12 Eels -9.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.36 6.34 1.00
La Rochelle 6.93 6.88 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 5.23 5.27 -0.00
Racing 92 5.02 4.86 0.20
Toulon 3.84 4.09 -0.30
Lyon 3.44 3.10 0.30
Stade Francais 2.76 -1.05 3.80
Montpellier 2.67 4.18 -1.50
Clermont 2.03 4.05 -2.00
Castres Olympique 0.04 2.87 -2.80
Section Paloise -0.21 -2.12 1.90
Aviron Bayonnais -1.41 -4.26 2.80
USA Perpignan -3.60 -2.75 -0.90
Brive -6.85 -4.20 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 132 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Jun 03 20 – 33 5.40 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 05 25 – 32 5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Jun 10 Stade Toulousain 2.30
2 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 11 La Rochelle 1.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.01 17.95 -0.90
Chiefs 13.48 8.81 4.70
Blues 12.81 12.34 0.50
Hurricanes 10.19 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 6.35 6.64 -0.30
Highlanders 1.30 5.04 -3.70
Reds -0.51 1.89 -2.40
Waratahs -1.68 -2.50 0.80
Rebels -4.61 -6.19 1.60
Western Force -6.15 -5.54 -0.60
Fijian Drua -8.77 -10.50 1.70
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -8.91 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 02 16 – 9 15.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 02 33 – 17 14.20 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Jun 03 41 – 17 -6.90 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 03 27 – 26 -3.80 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Jun 03 24 – 33 16.50 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Chiefs Jun 04 19 – 43 -13.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jun 09 Blues 20.00
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 10 Chiefs 19.50
3 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Jun 10 Crusaders 31.30
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 Brumbies 1.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.40 4.67 -0.30
Sharks 4.06 -1.30 5.40
Pumas 2.80 2.84 -0.00
Bulls 1.29 3.43 -2.10
Griquas -1.46 1.39 -2.90
Western Province -1.96 -3.24 1.30
Lions -2.64 -7.79 5.20
Griffons -16.50 -10.00 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Jun 03 38 – 29 3.70 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Griffons Jun 03 64 – 33 20.30 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Jun 04 14 – 29 5.10 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 04 29 – 21 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Jun 09 Pumas -0.30
2 Lions vs. Griffons Jun 10 Lions 17.90
3 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 11 Bulls 0.90
4 Western Province vs. Sharks Jun 11 Sharks -2.00

 

May 30, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.03 12.99 0.00
Rabbitohs 8.62 9.35 -0.70
Storm 5.97 11.21 -5.20
Eels 4.45 6.78 -2.30
Sharks 3.49 4.50 -1.00
Roosters 1.09 7.64 -6.60
Broncos 0.79 -5.92 6.70
Raiders 0.75 1.98 -1.20
Cowboys -1.78 6.23 -8.00
Dragons -3.60 -2.73 -0.90
Dolphins -3.78 -10.00 6.20
Sea Eagles -4.59 -5.26 0.70
Warriors -5.93 -11.12 5.20
Titans -6.32 -6.32 -0.00
Wests Tigers -6.81 -13.52 6.70
Knights -8.48 -9.53 1.00
Bulldogs -8.89 -8.29 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Dragons May 25 26 – 12 1.10 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Cowboys May 26 24 – 16 9.60 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Broncos May 27 22 – 26 0.20 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 27 26 – 33 13.30 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles May 28 28 – 18 -2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 02 Raiders -4.60
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Jun 03 Warriors 3.90
3 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 03 Rabbitohs -11.90
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 03 Sharks 5.70
5 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 04 Roosters 13.00
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Jun 04 Storm -4.80
7 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 04 Panthers 19.60

 

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Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.36 6.34 1.00
La Rochelle 6.93 6.88 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.80 5.27 -0.50
Racing 92 4.43 4.86 -0.40
Lyon 3.87 3.10 0.80
Toulon 3.84 4.09 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.36 -1.05 4.40
Montpellier 2.67 4.18 -1.50
Clermont 2.03 4.05 -2.00
Castres Olympique 0.04 2.87 -2.80
Section Paloise -0.21 -2.12 1.90
Aviron Bayonnais -1.41 -4.26 2.80
USA Perpignan -3.60 -2.75 -0.90
Brive -6.85 -4.20 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 132 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan May 29 26 – 16 10.20 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Racing 92 May 29 32 – 25 3.80 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais May 29 14 – 10 10.70 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 29 53 – 19 10.30 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier May 29 35 – 10 2.20 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive May 29 54 – 10 19.20 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles May 29 35 – 19 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Jun 03 Stade Francais 5.40
2 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 05 Lyon 5.60

 

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