Posts written by David Scott (1765)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 1, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.70 12.99 -0.30
Storm 7.61 11.21 -3.60
Cowboys 5.33 6.23 -0.90
Rabbitohs 4.23 9.35 -5.10
Broncos 2.90 -5.92 8.80
Eels 2.38 6.78 -4.40
Warriors 1.45 -11.12 12.60
Sharks 0.81 4.50 -3.70
Knights -0.50 -9.53 9.00
Raiders -1.54 1.98 -3.50
Roosters -2.18 7.64 -9.80
Sea Eagles -3.14 -5.26 2.10
Titans -4.40 -6.32 1.90
Dragons -7.06 -2.73 -4.30
Dolphins -7.08 -10.00 2.90
Wests Tigers -11.50 -13.52 2.00
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jul 27 32 – 10 6.10 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 18 – 32 -16.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 28 46 – 16 5.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 6 – 28 5.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 18 – 24 0.00 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 29 28 – 0 13.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Jul 30 23 – 22 -6.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jul 30 22 – 13 -8.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 Roosters 4.00
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 Titans 0.20
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 Panthers 8.10
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 Cowboys 5.40
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 Knights -3.60
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 Rabbitohs 6.40
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 Eels 12.40
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 Raiders 13.00

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.44 9.44 0.00
Wellington 8.72 8.72 0.00
North Harbour 7.75 7.75 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.12 0.00
Bay of Plenty 4.55 4.55 -0.00
Waikato 3.71 3.71 -0.00
Tasman 2.20 2.20 -0.00
Auckland 2.15 2.15 -0.00
Otago 0.62 0.62 -0.00
Taranaki -2.98 -2.98 -0.00
Northland -3.92 -3.92 0.00
Counties Manukau -7.44 -7.44 0.00
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.18 -14.18 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 Tasman 4.60
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 Taranaki 7.50
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 Hawke’s Bay 0.40
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 Wellington -19.90
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 Canterbury -10.40
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 Bay of Plenty 5.40
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 Waikato -13.00
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 2.10

 

July 25, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.74 12.99 -1.30
Cowboys 6.44 6.23 0.20
Storm 6.18 11.21 -5.00
Rabbitohs 4.47 9.35 -4.90
Eels 3.81 6.78 -3.00
Broncos 1.89 -5.92 7.80
Sharks 1.78 4.50 -2.70
Warriors 1.45 -11.12 12.60
Raiders -0.00 1.98 -2.00
Roosters -1.18 7.64 -8.80
Knights -2.04 -9.53 7.50
Sea Eagles -3.60 -5.26 1.70
Titans -5.50 -6.32 0.80
Dolphins -6.56 -10.00 3.40
Dragons -6.60 -2.73 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.74 -13.52 1.80
Bulldogs -12.51 -8.29 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 156 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 18 – 14 9.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Jul 21 21 – 20 8.60 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 21 20 – 36 8.40 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 22 18 – 36 1.00 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Storm Jul 22 26 – 18 -7.20 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 22 24 – 16 5.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 23 44 – 18 27.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 26 – 30 10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jul 27 Broncos 6.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 Rabbitohs -16.20
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 28 Storm 5.40
4 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 Raiders 5.00
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 Dragons 0.00
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 29 Panthers 13.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Jul 30 Dolphins -6.00
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jul 30 Cowboys -8.90

 

July 18, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.91 12.99 -1.10
Storm 7.15 11.21 -4.10
Cowboys 6.10 6.23 -0.10
Rabbitohs 5.89 9.35 -3.50
Eels 4.14 6.78 -2.60
Sharks 2.70 4.50 -1.80
Warriors 2.00 -11.12 13.10
Broncos 0.47 -5.92 6.40
Raiders -0.56 1.98 -2.50
Roosters -2.34 7.64 -10.00
Knights -3.01 -9.53 6.50
Titans -4.34 -6.32 2.00
Sea Eagles -4.52 -5.26 0.70
Dragons -6.02 -2.73 -3.30
Dolphins -6.56 -10.00 3.40
Wests Tigers -12.33 -13.52 1.20
Bulldogs -12.68 -8.29 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 14 34 – 18 11.30 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 15 24 – 44 -8.60 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 15 8 – 19 -6.70 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 15 16 – 30 -5.20 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 16 44 – 12 2.00 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Panthers Jul 16 14 – 24 -16.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Titans Jul 16 25 – 24 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 Dragons 9.30
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Jul 21 Warriors 8.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 21 Rabbitohs 8.40
4 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 22 Titans 1.00
5 Knights vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -7.20
6 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 22 Cowboys 5.00
7 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 23 Panthers 27.60
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 Sharks 10.20

 

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July 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.40 12.99 -0.60
Storm 6.52 11.21 -4.70
Rabbitohs 5.89 9.35 -3.50
Cowboys 5.63 6.23 -0.60
Eels 4.95 6.78 -1.80
Sharks 4.37 4.50 -0.10
Warriors 0.33 -11.12 11.50
Broncos -0.30 -5.92 5.60
Raiders -0.56 1.98 -2.50
Roosters -1.71 7.64 -9.40
Knights -3.53 -9.53 6.00
Sea Eagles -4.05 -5.26 1.20
Titans -5.15 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.02 -2.73 -3.30
Dolphins -7.05 -10.00 3.00
Wests Tigers -11.81 -13.52 1.70
Bulldogs -11.91 -8.29 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Jul 06 12 – 36 -11.50 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 07 26 – 36 -1.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 08 10 – 46 15.80 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 08 32 – 36 24.00 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Jul 09 21 – 23 6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 14 Knights 11.30
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 15 Broncos -8.60
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 15 Cowboys -6.70
4 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 15 Storm -5.20
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 16 Warriors 2.00
6 Dolphins vs. Panthers Jul 16 Panthers -16.40
7 Eels vs. Titans Jul 16 Eels 13.10

 

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July 4, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.40 12.99 -0.60
Eels 7.54 6.78 0.80
Rabbitohs 7.47 9.35 -1.90
Storm 6.52 11.21 -4.70
Cowboys 5.63 6.23 -0.60
Sharks 3.54 4.50 -1.00
Broncos -0.30 -5.92 5.60
Raiders -1.18 1.98 -3.20
Roosters -1.71 7.64 -9.40
Warriors -2.26 -11.12 8.90
Knights -3.53 -9.53 6.00
Sea Eagles -4.05 -5.26 1.20
Titans -4.57 -6.32 1.70
Dragons -5.39 -2.73 -2.70
Dolphins -7.63 -10.00 2.40
Wests Tigers -10.98 -13.52 2.50
Bulldogs -13.50 -8.29 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 29 52 – 16 8.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Jun 30 6 – 28 -1.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 30 16 – 34 -0.70 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 01 26 – 22 7.10 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 01 74 – 0 13.80 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Dolphins Jul 01 24 – 16 11.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 02 0 – 66 -0.70 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 02 18 – 16 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Jul 06 Sharks -11.50
2 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 07 Raiders -1.20
3 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 08 Eels 15.80
4 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 08 Rabbitohs 24.00
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Jul 09 Titans 6.10

 

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June 27, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.33 12.99 -1.70
Storm 7.60 11.21 -3.60
Eels 7.54 6.78 0.80
Rabbitohs 6.23 9.35 -3.10
Cowboys 2.71 6.23 -3.50
Sharks 2.00 4.50 -2.50
Broncos 0.03 -5.92 6.00
Raiders -0.85 1.98 -2.80
Warriors -1.02 -11.12 10.10
Roosters -1.52 7.64 -9.20
Dragons -3.85 -2.73 -1.10
Sea Eagles -4.23 -5.26 1.00
Titans -4.90 -6.32 1.40
Knights -6.64 -9.53 2.90
Dolphins -7.96 -10.00 2.00
Wests Tigers -8.06 -13.52 5.50
Bulldogs -10.38 -8.29 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Warriors Jun 23 18 – 48 7.10 FALSE
2 Dolphins vs. Eels Jun 24 20 – 48 -10.30 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Knights Jun 24 20 – 12 22.90 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jun 24 24 – 6 13.90 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 25 12 – 18 10.00 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jun 25 6 – 31 10.30 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders Jun 25 18 – 20 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 29 Sharks 8.80
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Jun 30 Rabbitohs -1.20
3 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 30 Panthers -0.70
4 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 01 Raiders 7.10
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 01 Cowboys 13.80
6 Broncos vs. Dolphins Jul 01 Broncos 11.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 02 Knights -0.70
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 02 Sea Eagles 0.30

 

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June 20, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.28 12.99 -0.70
Rabbitohs 8.13 9.35 -1.20
Storm 7.15 11.21 -4.10
Eels 6.44 6.78 -0.30
Sharks 2.00 4.50 -2.50
Broncos 1.04 -5.92 7.00
Cowboys 0.80 6.23 -5.40
Roosters -0.91 7.64 -8.60
Raiders -1.46 1.98 -3.40
Dragons -1.87 -2.73 0.90
Warriors -3.00 -11.12 8.10
Sea Eagles -3.79 -5.26 1.50
Titans -5.91 -6.32 0.40
Dolphins -6.87 -10.00 3.10
Knights -7.60 -9.53 1.90
Wests Tigers -8.06 -13.52 5.50
Bulldogs -10.38 -8.29 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 16 27 – 23 -10.30 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 17 16 – 18 -4.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 17 34 – 4 10.90 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jun 17 6 – 28 -10.70 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 18 48 – 10 12.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Warriors Jun 23 Dragons 7.10
2 Dolphins vs. Eels Jun 24 Eels -10.30
3 Panthers vs. Knights Jun 24 Panthers 22.90
4 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jun 24 Storm 13.90
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 25 Broncos 10.00
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jun 25 Rabbitohs 10.30
7 Roosters vs. Raiders Jun 25 Roosters 3.50

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.49 17.95 0.50
Chiefs 13.09 8.81 4.30
Blues 12.17 12.34 -0.20
Hurricanes 10.03 9.59 0.40
Brumbies 6.45 6.64 -0.20
Highlanders 1.30 5.04 -3.70
Reds -0.05 1.89 -1.90
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -4.61 -6.19 1.60
Western Force -6.15 -5.54 -0.60
Fijian Drua -9.21 -10.50 1.30
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -8.91 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 16 52 – 15 7.70 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 17 19 – 6 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 24 Crusaders -1.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 6.18 4.67 1.50
Pumas 4.49 2.84 1.60
Sharks 0.96 -1.30 2.30
Western Province 0.59 -3.24 3.80
Bulls -0.48 3.43 -3.90
Griquas -2.59 1.39 -4.00
Lions -4.44 -7.79 3.40
Griffons -14.70 -10.00 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 58 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 18 39 – 10 7.90 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Jun 18 20 – 26 1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jun 25 Cheetahs 5.70

 

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