Posts written by David Scott (1765)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 30, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.26 17.95 -0.70
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 13.01 8.81 4.20
Hurricanes 9.95 9.59 0.40
Brumbies 6.23 6.64 -0.40
Highlanders 0.90 5.04 -4.10
Reds 0.58 1.89 -1.30
Waratahs -0.74 -2.50 1.80
Rebels -4.49 -6.19 1.70
Western Force -5.68 -5.54 -0.10
Fijian Drua -9.86 -10.50 0.60
Moana Pasifika -11.73 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds May 26 35 – 30 6.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force May 26 52 – 14 2.20 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 27 47 – 46 8.00 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 27 42 – 18 23.40 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 27 36 – 25 6.30 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Chiefs May 27 21 – 31 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 02 Blues 15.80
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 02 Brumbies 14.20
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Jun 03 Reds -6.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 03 Crusaders -3.80
5 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Jun 03 Waratahs 16.50
6 Western Force vs. Chiefs Jun 04 Chiefs -13.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.32 -1.30 5.60
Pumas 4.14 2.84 1.30
Cheetahs 3.06 4.67 -1.60
Bulls 0.53 3.43 -2.90
Western Province -1.55 -3.24 1.70
Griquas -1.86 1.39 -3.30
Lions -2.90 -7.79 4.90
Griffons -15.74 -10.00 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Sharks May 27 9 – 35 -14.40 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Lions May 27 12 – 32 9.10 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas May 28 29 – 29 10.40 FALSE
4 Pumas vs. Bulls May 28 17 – 24 9.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Jun 03 Griquas 3.70
2 Bulls vs. Griffons Jun 03 Bulls 20.30
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Jun 04 Pumas 5.10
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 04 Sharks 11.20

 

May 23, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.03 12.99 0.00
Rabbitohs 9.85 9.35 0.50
Storm 5.97 11.21 -5.20
Eels 4.63 6.78 -2.10
Sharks 3.49 4.50 -1.00
Roosters 1.09 7.64 -6.60
Broncos 0.33 -5.92 6.30
Raiders -0.48 1.98 -2.50
Cowboys -1.96 6.23 -8.20
Dragons -2.75 -2.73 -0.00
Sea Eagles -3.75 -5.26 1.50
Dolphins -4.63 -10.00 5.40
Warriors -5.46 -11.12 5.70
Titans -6.32 -6.32 -0.00
Wests Tigers -6.81 -13.52 6.70
Bulldogs -8.89 -8.29 -0.60
Knights -9.31 -9.53 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 18 4 – 15 -9.30 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Roosters May 19 24 – 22 -1.60 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 19 16 – 36 11.70 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Knights May 20 26 – 6 14.60 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 20 66 – 18 -7.30 FALSE
6 Dolphins vs. Storm May 20 16 – 24 -7.50 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans May 21 20 – 18 -0.00 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 21 14 – 42 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Dragons May 25 Dolphins 1.10
2 Eels vs. Cowboys May 26 Eels 9.60
3 Warriors vs. Broncos May 27 Warriors 0.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 27 Rabbitohs 13.30
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles May 28 Sea Eagles -2.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.22 17.95 -0.70
Blues 12.97 12.34 0.60
Chiefs 12.59 8.81 3.80
Hurricanes 10.19 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 6.65 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 0.97 5.04 -4.10
Reds 0.51 1.89 -1.40
Waratahs -0.70 -2.50 1.80
Western Force -4.45 -5.54 1.10
Rebels -5.71 -6.19 0.50
Fijian Drua -9.53 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -8.91 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders May 19 7 – 41 -25.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Blues May 19 26 – 45 -5.90 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 20 20 – 17 13.10 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 20 23 – 12 5.30 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua May 20 32 – 18 12.10 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 20 34 – 19 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds May 26 Highlanders 6.00
2 Rebels vs. Western Force May 26 Rebels 2.20
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 27 Fijian Drua 8.00
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 27 Crusaders 23.40
5 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 27 Blues 6.30
6 Brumbies vs. Chiefs May 27 Chiefs -0.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 5.28 2.84 2.40
Cheetahs 3.80 4.67 -0.90
Sharks 3.50 -1.30 4.80
Western Province 0.31 -3.24 3.60
Bulls -0.61 3.43 -4.00
Griquas -2.60 1.39 -4.00
Lions -4.77 -7.79 3.00
Griffons -14.92 -10.00 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas May 20 22 – 14 -2.50 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs May 20 35 – 23 2.30 TRUE
3 Griffons vs. Griquas May 21 21 – 47 -5.60 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Bulls May 21 32 – 33 0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Sharks May 27 Sharks -14.40
2 Western Province vs. Lions May 27 Western Province 9.10
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas May 28 Cheetahs 10.40
4 Pumas vs. Bulls May 28 Pumas 9.90

 

May 16, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.84 12.99 -0.20
Rabbitohs 11.59 9.35 2.20
Storm 5.92 11.21 -5.30
Sharks 2.90 4.50 -1.60
Eels 2.88 6.78 -3.90
Raiders 1.56 1.98 -0.40
Roosters 1.49 7.64 -6.20
Cowboys 0.77 6.23 -5.50
Broncos 0.51 -5.92 6.40
Dragons -3.16 -2.73 -0.40
Dolphins -4.58 -10.00 5.40
Warriors -5.46 -11.12 5.70
Sea Eagles -5.79 -5.26 -0.50
Titans -6.10 -6.32 0.20
Knights -8.72 -9.53 0.80
Bulldogs -9.11 -8.29 -0.80
Wests Tigers -9.54 -13.52 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 11 24 – 16 8.50 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 12 12 – 24 4.40 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters May 12 48 – 4 10.70 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 13 20 – 0 25.30 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons May 13 42 – 22 5.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels May 13 26 – 18 0.60 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Titans May 14 46 – 26 -2.20 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks May 14 14 – 20 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 18 Panthers -9.30
2 Dragons vs. Roosters May 19 Roosters -1.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 19 Rabbitohs 11.70
4 Sharks vs. Knights May 20 Sharks 14.60
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 20 Cowboys -7.30
6 Dolphins vs. Storm May 20 Storm -7.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans May 21 Titans -0.00
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 21 Raiders 10.30

 

View comments (4)

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

By

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.25 16.79 -2.50
Munster 10.83 9.78 1.00
Stormers 9.18 7.14 2.00
Ulster 8.99 9.27 -0.30
Bulls 7.91 7.84 0.10
Glasgow 3.79 -0.00 3.80
Sharks 3.79 6.95 -3.20
Connacht 3.47 -1.60 5.10
Edinburgh 0.38 3.58 -3.20
Scarlets -1.88 -1.23 -0.60
Lions -3.38 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.61 -3.68 0.10
Ospreys -4.69 -0.83 -3.90
Cardiff Rugby -5.53 -7.42 1.90
Dragons -9.05 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -18.42 -16.99 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Connacht May 14 43 – 25 9.30 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 14 15 – 16 8.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Munster May 28 Stormers 2.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

By

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.27 6.88 0.40
Stade Toulousain 6.59 6.34 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.19 5.27 -0.10
Racing 92 4.59 4.86 -0.30
Toulon 3.45 4.09 -0.60
Montpellier 3.38 4.18 -0.80
Lyon 3.13 3.10 0.00
Stade Francais 3.02 -1.05 4.10
Clermont 1.87 4.05 -2.20
Castres Olympique 0.05 2.87 -2.80
Aviron Bayonnais -0.67 -4.26 3.60
Section Paloise -0.93 -2.12 1.20
USA Perpignan -3.61 -2.75 -0.90
Brive -6.08 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Clermont May 13 21 – 18 4.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise May 13 28 – 0 11.50 TRUE
3 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 13 13 – 16 0.70 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 13 42 – 31 1.70 TRUE
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 13 43 – 7 5.80 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 13 31 – 31 7.10 FALSE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain May 13 26 – 21 -4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan May 27 Castres Olympique 10.20
2 Clermont vs. Racing 92 May 27 Clermont 3.80
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais May 27 La Rochelle 10.70
4 Lyon vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 27 Lyon 10.30
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier May 27 Section Paloise 2.20
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive May 27 Stade Toulousain 19.20
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles May 27 Toulon 4.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

By

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.81 17.95 -1.10
Blues 12.42 12.34 0.10
Chiefs 12.31 8.81 3.50
Hurricanes 10.47 9.59 0.90
Brumbies 7.55 6.64 0.90
Highlanders 1.42 5.04 -3.60
Reds 1.06 1.89 -0.80
Waratahs -0.84 -2.50 1.70
Western Force -5.35 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.16 -6.19 0.00
Fijian Drua -9.39 -10.50 1.10
Moana Pasifika -11.66 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 22 – 25 18.40 FALSE
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 34 – 14 6.40 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 71 – 22 23.80 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 15 – 3 7.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 38 – 20 7.90 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 48 – 32 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -25.00
2 Reds vs. Blues May 19 Blues -5.90
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 20 Highlanders 13.10
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 20 Chiefs 5.30
5 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua May 20 Waratahs 12.10
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 20 Brumbies -9.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

By

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.54 4.14 2.40
Leicester Tigers 5.72 7.93 -2.20
London Irish 2.40 -1.65 4.00
Saracens 1.87 -5.00 6.90
Northampton Saints 1.81 3.99 -2.20
Harlequins 1.28 3.92 -2.60
Bristol 0.33 -2.43 2.80
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -1.42 3.67 -5.10
Gloucester -1.80 5.92 -7.70
Bath -2.20 -9.15 6.90
Newcastle Falcons -11.59 -8.76 -2.80
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 14 38 – 15 2.50 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 15 21 – 13 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens May 28 Sale Sharks 4.70

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »