Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 5, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 17.31 19.20 -1.90
Panthers 14.72 14.26 0.50
Rabbitohs 13.64 15.81 -2.20
Sea Eagles 8.06 10.99 -2.90
Eels 4.78 2.54 2.20
Roosters 3.20 2.23 1.00
Sharks 0.93 -1.10 2.00
Titans -0.72 1.05 -1.80
Raiders -2.91 -1.10 -1.80
Knights -4.59 -6.54 2.00
Warriors -7.93 -8.99 1.10
Dragons -8.55 -7.99 -0.60
Broncos -9.16 -8.90 -0.30
Cowboys -9.96 -12.27 2.30
Bulldogs -10.19 -10.25 0.10
Wests Tigers -10.62 -10.94 0.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 31 8 – 6 14.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 01 18 – 0 7.20 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 01 26 – 12 2.70 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 02 20 – 6 5.70 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 02 25 – 6 13.00 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Roosters Apr 02 4 – 28 -8.20 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 03 44 – 0 28.60 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 03 48 – 14 14.00 TRUE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 07 Sea Eagles -9.60
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 08 Warriors 7.50
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 08 Roosters -9.40
4 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 09 Storm -17.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Apr 09 Rabbitohs 25.20
6 Titans vs. Eels Apr 09 Eels -2.50
7 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 Sharks 14.60
8 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Apr 10 Panthers -21.90
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 22

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Team Ratings for Week 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.18 14.79 2.40
Munster 10.28 10.69 -0.40
Ulster 8.54 7.41 1.10
Bulls 6.52 3.65 2.90
Stormers 5.64 0.00 5.60
Edinburgh 5.05 2.90 2.20
Sharks 3.95 -0.07 4.00
Glasgow 3.38 3.69 -0.30
Connacht -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Lions -0.57 -3.91 3.30
Scarlets -1.33 -0.77 -0.60
Ospreys -2.22 0.94 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -4.07 -0.11 -4.00
Benetton -6.38 -4.50 -1.90
Dragons -10.62 -6.92 -3.70
Zebre -18.76 -13.47 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Apr 02 51 – 3 18.40 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Zebre Apr 02 40 – 12 28.80 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Connacht Apr 03 17 – 21 1.70 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Apr 03 34 – 16 2.90 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Edinburgh Apr 03 15 – 9 -0.20 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 03 29 – 13 14.00 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Leinster Apr 03 19 – 34 -0.40 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 03 35 – 20 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 10 Stormers 4.10
2 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 10 Sharks 9.50
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Apr 10 Cardiff Rugby 2.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.27 6.78 0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 6.05 5.42 0.60
Stade Toulousain 5.93 6.83 -0.90
Racing-Metro 92 5.57 6.13 -0.60
Clermont Auvergne 5.45 5.09 0.40
Montpellier 3.85 -0.01 3.90
Lyon Rugby 3.70 4.15 -0.50
RC Toulonnais 3.35 1.82 1.50
Castres Olympique 1.19 0.94 0.20
Stade Francais Paris 0.21 1.20 -1.00
Section Paloise -0.67 -2.25 1.60
Brive -3.62 -3.19 -0.40
USA Perpignan -3.65 -2.78 -0.90
Biarritz -7.26 -2.78 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Section Paloise Apr 03 19 – 42 1.40 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Apr 03 15 – 16 6.00 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 03 19 – 13 1.30 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive Apr 03 41 – 10 14.50 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Apr 03 10 – 43 9.30 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Apr 03 13 – 23 -0.00 TRUE
7 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Apr 04 53 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 24 Lyon Rugby -0.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 24 Castres Olympique 2.20
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Apr 24 La Rochelle 17.40
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Biarritz Apr 24 Racing-Metro 92 19.30
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 24 Stade Francais Paris 7.40
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 24 RC Toulonnais 3.90
7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Apr 25 Montpellier 4.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.89 13.43 0.50
Blues 9.32 9.26 0.10
Chiefs 8.64 5.56 3.10
Hurricanes 6.56 8.28 -1.70
Highlanders 5.09 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 3.22 3.61 -0.40
Reds 2.42 1.37 1.00
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -5.73 -9.00 3.30
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.43 -10.00 -0.40
Fijian Drua -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 01 17 – 14 15.70 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 01 14 – 38 0.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 02 46 – 16 24.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 02 21 – 7 3.50 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 03 29 – 30 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 08 Highlanders 21.00
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 08 Crusaders -1.80
3 Western Force vs. Rebels Apr 08 Western Force 9.50
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 09 Chiefs 4.80
5 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Apr 09 Brumbies -10.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.93 -5.00 9.90
Leicester Tigers 3.93 -6.14 10.10
Exeter Chiefs 3.15 7.35 -4.20
Harlequins 2.44 -1.08 3.50
Sale Sharks 1.73 4.96 -3.20
Northampton Saints 1.55 -2.48 4.00
Wasps 1.39 5.66 -4.30
Gloucester 0.72 -1.02 1.70
Bristol -3.14 1.28 -4.40
London Irish -4.08 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.95 2.14 -8.10
Newcastle Falcons -5.95 -3.52 -2.40
Worcester Warriors -12.31 -5.71 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 129 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 02 12 – 18 2.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 03 42 – 22 12.70 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Apr 03 21 – 27 5.10 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 03 39 – 22 8.20 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 03 10 – 45 1.50 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 04 14 – 41 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 23 Bristol 0.60
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Apr 23 Newcastle Falcons 2.60
3 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Apr 24 Northampton Saints -3.00
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 24 Harlequins 3.00
5 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 24 Wasps 18.20
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 25 Saracens 6.30

 

March 29, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

I forgot about the time difference between New Zealand and Australia so that the postponed game has already finished. So here are the predictions for the weekend.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.59 13.43 1.20
Blues 8.87 9.26 -0.40
Chiefs 8.22 5.56 2.70
Hurricanes 6.98 8.28 -1.30
Highlanders 4.40 6.54 -2.10
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 1.83 1.37 0.50
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -6.95 -9.00 2.00
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -9.98 -10.00 0.00
Fijian Drua -11.63 -10.00 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 29 19 – 32 -20.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 01 Crusaders 15.70
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 01 Fijian Drua 0.80
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 02 Blues 24.30
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 02 Reds 3.50
5 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 03 Hurricanes 4.30

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 21

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Team Ratings for Week 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.41 14.79 1.60
Munster 11.05 10.69 0.40
Ulster 9.33 7.41 1.90
Bulls 5.73 3.65 2.10
Edinburgh 5.61 2.90 2.70
Stormers 5.46 0.00 5.50
Glasgow 3.45 3.69 -0.20
Sharks 2.59 -0.07 2.70
Connacht -1.07 1.72 -2.80
Lions -1.13 -3.91 2.80
Ospreys -2.04 0.94 -3.00
Scarlets -2.13 -0.77 -1.40
Cardiff Rugby -3.28 -0.11 -3.20
Benetton -5.87 -4.50 -1.40
Dragons -9.27 -6.92 -2.30
Zebre -18.83 -13.47 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Ospreys Mar 26 45 – 15 5.00 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Benetton Mar 26 51 – 22 22.20 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Ulster Mar 27 23 – 20 2.50 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Scarlets Mar 27 24 – 41 -8.70 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Edinburgh Mar 27 5 – 21 5.60 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Dragons Mar 27 55 – 20 19.90 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Mar 27 32 – 28 -1.20 FALSE
8 Connacht vs. Leinster Mar 27 8 – 45 -10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Apr 02 Sharks 18.40
2 Glasgow vs. Zebre Apr 02 Glasgow 28.80
3 Benetton vs. Connacht Apr 03 Benetton 1.70
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Apr 03 Bulls 2.90
5 Lions vs. Edinburgh Apr 03 Edinburgh -0.20
6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 03 Stormers 14.00
7 Munster vs. Leinster Apr 03 Leinster -0.40
8 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 03 Scarlets 6.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 6.92 6.78 0.10
Bordeaux-Begles 6.40 5.42 1.00
Stade Toulousain 6.16 6.83 -0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.91 5.09 -0.20
Lyon Rugby 4.91 4.15 0.80
Racing-Metro 92 4.87 6.13 -1.30
Montpellier 3.35 -0.01 3.40
RC Toulonnais 2.14 1.82 0.30
Castres Olympique 0.95 0.94 0.00
Stade Francais Paris 0.91 1.20 -0.30
Section Paloise -1.43 -2.25 0.80
Brive -3.08 -3.19 0.10
USA Perpignan -3.15 -2.78 -0.40
Biarritz -6.51 -2.78 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 146 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Castres Olympique Mar 27 28 – 12 1.50 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 27 19 – 0 7.80 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Biarritz Mar 27 37 – 22 16.50 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Mar 27 27 – 22 8.60 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 27 18 – 31 2.00 FALSE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 27 32 – 22 3.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 28 27 – 19 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Section Paloise Apr 03 Biarritz 1.40
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Apr 03 Bordeaux-Begles 6.00
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 03 Castres Olympique 1.30
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive Apr 03 Clermont Auvergne 14.50
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Apr 03 Lyon Rugby 9.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Apr 03 Montpellier -0.00
7 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Apr 04 Racing-Metro 92 10.50

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Postponed Game

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

There is one postponed game tonight. I will give predictions for the weekend games tomorrow.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.59 13.43 1.20
Blues 9.42 9.26 0.20
Chiefs 8.22 5.56 2.70
Hurricanes 6.98 8.28 -1.30
Highlanders 4.40 6.54 -2.10
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 1.83 1.37 0.50
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -6.95 -9.00 2.00
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.53 -10.00 -0.50
Fijian Drua -11.63 -10.00 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 24 – 19 -14.00 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 42 – 27 8.10 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 26 25 – 32 1.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Mar 26 19 – 34 0.80 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 26 32 – 20 14.70 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Mar 27 38 – 39 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 29 Blues -20.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.45 -5.00 9.40
Leicester Tigers 3.93 -6.14 10.10
Exeter Chiefs 2.72 7.35 -4.60
Sale Sharks 2.21 4.96 -2.80
Gloucester 1.33 -1.02 2.40
Harlequins 1.10 -1.08 2.20
Northampton Saints 1.04 -2.48 3.50
Wasps 0.77 5.66 -4.90
Bristol -2.63 1.28 -3.90
London Irish -2.73 -8.05 5.30
Bath -5.52 2.14 -7.70
Newcastle Falcons -7.65 -3.52 -4.10
Worcester Warriors -10.61 -5.71 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 123 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 27 24 – 24 -3.80 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 27 22 – 42 3.00 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Mar 27 27 – 23 12.60 TRUE
4 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 27 27 – 24 14.20 TRUE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 28 17 – 22 4.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 02 Sale Sharks 2.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 03 Exeter Chiefs 12.70
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Apr 03 Gloucester 5.10
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 03 Northampton Saints 8.20
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 03 Worcester Warriors 1.50
6 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 04 London Irish 0.70

 

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