Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 29, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.37 19.20 -2.80
Rabbitohs 14.35 15.81 -1.50
Panthers 14.01 14.26 -0.30
Sea Eagles 7.58 10.99 -3.40
Eels 3.59 2.54 1.10
Roosters 2.24 2.23 0.00
Sharks 0.25 -1.10 1.40
Titans 0.05 1.05 -1.00
Raiders -2.43 -1.10 -1.30
Knights -3.91 -6.54 2.60
Dragons -7.36 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -8.47 -8.99 0.50
Broncos -8.62 -8.90 0.30
Cowboys -9.01 -12.27 3.30
Bulldogs -9.25 -10.25 1.00
Wests Tigers -11.40 -10.94 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 24 12 – 36 -2.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 25 12 – 16 3.80 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 25 28 – 16 15.70 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 26 38 – 20 21.50 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Eels Mar 26 24 – 28 18.40 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 24 – 22 0.20 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 27 12 – 38 7.10 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 13 – 12 22.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 31 Titans 14.50
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 01 Sharks 7.20
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 01 Panthers 2.70
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 02 Warriors 5.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 02 Sea Eagles 13.00
6 Cowboys vs. Roosters Apr 02 Roosters -8.20
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 03 Storm 28.60
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 03 Eels 14.00

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 10.49 7.25 3.20
Cheetahs 5.03 -2.70 7.70
Sharks 3.36 4.13 -0.80
Pumas -1.87 -3.31 1.40
Western Province -2.45 1.42 -3.90
Griquas -2.58 -4.92 2.30
Lions -11.98 -1.88 -10.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Mar 24 11 – 37 8.80 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Mar 24 15 – 29 5.90 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 24 10 – 40 -15.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Apr 07 Pumas 14.60
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Apr 07 Sharks -1.40
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Apr 07 Bulls 17.40

 

March 22, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 20

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Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.15 14.79 0.40
Munster 10.44 10.69 -0.20
Ulster 9.37 7.41 2.00
Stormers 5.42 0.00 5.40
Bulls 4.95 3.65 1.30
Edinburgh 4.56 2.90 1.70
Glasgow 3.91 3.69 0.20
Sharks 3.64 -0.07 3.70
Connacht 0.19 1.72 -1.50
Ospreys -0.86 0.94 -1.80
Lions -2.31 -3.91 1.60
Scarlets -2.88 -0.77 -2.10
Cardiff Rugby -3.74 -0.11 -3.60
Benetton -5.26 -4.50 -0.80
Dragons -8.48 -6.92 -1.60
Zebre -18.08 -13.47 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Scarlets Mar 19 57 – 12 11.30 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Mar 19 30 – 17 3.20 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 20 38 – 6 27.40 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Munster Mar 20 23 – 21 -7.30 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 40 – 3 13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Ospreys Mar 26 Lions 5.00
2 Munster vs. Benetton Mar 26 Munster 22.20
3 Stormers vs. Ulster Mar 27 Stormers 2.50
4 Zebre vs. Scarlets Mar 27 Scarlets -8.70
5 Sharks vs. Edinburgh Mar 27 Sharks 5.60
6 Bulls vs. Dragons Mar 27 Bulls 19.90
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Mar 27 Glasgow -1.20
8 Connacht vs. Leinster Mar 27 Leinster -10.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 6.53 6.78 -0.30
Stade Toulousain 6.15 6.83 -0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 5.90 5.42 0.50
Clermont Auvergne 5.26 5.09 0.20
Racing-Metro 92 5.26 6.13 -0.90
Lyon Rugby 4.92 4.15 0.80
Montpellier 3.43 -0.01 3.40
RC Toulonnais 1.79 1.82 -0.00
Castres Olympique 1.44 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 1.41 1.20 0.20
Section Paloise -1.25 -2.25 1.00
USA Perpignan -3.33 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -3.56 -3.19 -0.40
Biarritz -6.58 -2.78 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Mar 20 41 – 11 -0.00 FALSE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 21 35 – 10 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Castres Olympique Mar 27 Brive 1.50
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 27 La Rochelle 7.80
3 Montpellier vs. Biarritz Mar 27 Montpellier 16.50
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Mar 27 Section Paloise 8.60
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 27 Stade Francais Paris 2.00
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 27 RC Toulonnais 3.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 28 Stade Toulousain 7.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

I have just updated the prediction for the Force vs Brumbies which is to be played in Perth. The locations of the games between these two teams were swapped around because of the difficulty of travel to WA.

I have included a post hoc prediction for the rescheduled Round 2 game between the Chiefs and Moana Pasifika, which hadn’t been decided on when I posted last week. I will try and update later this week if there are cancelled games or rescheduled games because of Covid.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.75 13.43 0.30
Chiefs 9.05 5.56 3.50
Blues 8.93 9.26 -0.30
Hurricanes 7.95 8.28 -0.30
Highlanders 4.89 6.54 -1.70
Brumbies 3.93 3.61 0.30
Reds 2.05 1.37 0.70
Western Force -4.03 -4.96 0.90
Waratahs -7.17 -9.00 1.80
Rebels -8.47 -5.79 -2.70
Fijian Drua -11.08 -10.00 -1.10
Moana Pasifika -11.51 -10.00 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 25 59 – 12 16.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 18 16 – 12 8.00 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 19 18 – 20 -1.50 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 19 24 – 19 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 Hurricanes -14.00
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 Rebels 8.10
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 26 Highlanders 1.50
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Mar 26 Chiefs 0.80
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 26 Reds 14.70
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Mar 27 Brumbies -2.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

Unfortunately I entered my updating parameter incorrectly when preparing the predictions for the NRL, which I only realised when looking over the predictions for this round. I misplaced the decimal point so the parameter was out by a factor of 10. The predictions for Round 1 were not affected but those for Round 2 are. The updated values for those predictions are below. If you check the posted predictions for Round 2 you will see that there were extreme changes in the ratings from Round 1 to Round 2, which should not happen.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 17.69 19.20 -1.50
Rabbitohs 14.65 15.81 -1.20
Panthers 14.29 14.26 0.00
Sea Eagles 8.83 10.99 -2.20
Eels 2.28 2.54 -0.30
Roosters 1.95 2.23 -0.30
Titans 0.20 1.05 -0.80
Sharks -1.04 -1.10 0.10
Raiders -2.58 -1.10 -1.50
Knights -4.18 -6.54 2.40
Dragons -6.07 -7.99 1.90
Broncos -6.76 -8.90 2.10
Warriors -9.09 -8.99 -0.10
Bulldogs -10.51 -10.25 -0.30
Wests Tigers -10.77 -10.94 0.20
Cowboys -10.87 -12.27 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 15 – 14 7.00 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 18 16 – 20 -19.20 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 26 – 12 -6.30 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Mar 19 20 – 18 16.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Eels Mar 19 18 – 16 -0.80 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 19 26 – 6 -8.60 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 20 26 – 4 7.90 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Mar 20 10 – 16 0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 24 Sharks -2.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 25 Wests Tigers 3.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 25 Rabbitohs 15.70
4 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 26 Panthers 21.50
5 Storm vs. Eels Mar 26 Storm 18.40
6 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 Raiders 0.20
7 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 27 Broncos 7.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 Sea Eagles 22.30

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.34 7.25 2.10
Sharks 4.88 4.13 0.70
Cheetahs 3.51 -2.70 6.20
Western Province 0.01 1.42 -1.40
Griquas -2.58 -4.92 2.30
Pumas -4.33 -3.31 -1.00
Lions -10.83 -1.88 -8.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Mar 17 49 – 17 9.30 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Mar 17 24 – 17 8.30 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 17 35 – 21 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Mar 24 Western Province 8.80
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Mar 24 Sharks 5.90
3 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 24 Bulls -15.70

 

March 15, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 19

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Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.15 14.79 0.40
Munster 10.97 10.69 0.30
Ulster 9.37 7.41 2.00
Edinburgh 5.12 2.90 2.20
Stormers 4.29 0.00 4.30
Bulls 3.44 3.65 -0.20
Glasgow 3.35 3.69 -0.30
Sharks 3.23 -0.07 3.30
Connacht 0.19 1.72 -1.50
Ospreys -0.86 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.38 -0.77 -0.60
Cardiff Rugby -2.61 -0.11 -2.50
Lions -2.84 -3.91 1.10
Benetton -5.26 -4.50 -0.80
Dragons -8.48 -6.92 -1.60
Zebre -17.67 -13.47 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 13 18 – 13 -2.40 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Scarlets Mar 12 37 – 20 9.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 13 29 – 24 -2.40 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 13 37 – 20 4.90 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Mar 14 55 – 7 26.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Scarlets Mar 19 Bulls 11.30
2 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Mar 19 Glasgow 3.20
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 20 Sharks 27.40
4 Lions vs. Munster Mar 20 Munster -7.30
5 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 Stormers 13.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.43 6.78 0.60
Bordeaux-Begles 6.04 5.42 0.60
Stade Toulousain 5.60 6.83 -1.20
Racing-Metro 92 5.26 6.13 -0.90
Clermont Auvergne 5.11 5.09 0.00
Lyon Rugby 4.92 4.15 0.80
Montpellier 3.98 -0.01 4.00
Castres Olympique 1.44 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 1.41 1.20 0.20
RC Toulonnais 0.89 1.82 -0.90
Section Paloise -1.25 -2.25 1.00
USA Perpignan -3.33 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -3.56 -3.19 -0.40
Biarritz -6.58 -2.78 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 138 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 13 29 – 26 5.90 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 14 18 – 16 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Mar 20 La Rochelle -1.50
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 21 Stade Toulousain 10.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

These are predictions for two games which I missed. I am posting them for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.43 6.78 0.60
Bordeaux-Begles 5.90 5.42 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.60 6.83 -1.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.26 5.09 0.20
Racing-Metro 92 5.26 6.13 -0.90
Lyon Rugby 4.92 4.15 0.80
Montpellier 4.40 -0.01 4.40
Castres Olympique 1.44 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 1.41 1.20 0.20
RC Toulonnais 0.47 1.82 -1.30
Section Paloise -1.25 -2.25 1.00
USA Perpignan -3.33 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -3.56 -3.19 -0.40
Biarritz -6.58 -2.78 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 06 17 – 45 1.20 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 06 16 – 23 15.00 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Mar 06 25 – 9 2.60 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 06 25 – 16 6.60 TRUE
5 La Rochelle vs. Brive Mar 06 41 – 15 16.50 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 06 34 – 13 -3.60 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 07 23 – 16 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 13 Clermont Auvergne 5.90
2 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 14 Montpellier 10.40

 

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