Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 15, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.80 13.43 0.40
Blues 8.83 9.26 -0.40
Hurricanes 7.95 8.28 -0.30
Chiefs 7.77 5.56 2.20
Highlanders 4.88 6.54 -1.70
Brumbies 4.25 3.61 0.60
Reds 1.73 1.37 0.40
Western Force -4.07 -4.96 0.90
Waratahs -7.00 -9.00 2.00
Rebels -8.64 -5.79 -2.90
Moana Pasifika -10.16 -10.00 -0.20
Fijian Drua -11.04 -10.00 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 11 32 – 20 9.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 11 17 – 36 -6.00 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 11 22 – 17 2.10 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 12 21 – 24 13.20 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 12 33 – 28 19.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 Highlanders 20.50
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 18 Brumbies 8.00
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 19 Western Force -1.50
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Mar 19 Hurricanes 5.70
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 19 Waratahs 7.10
6 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 20 Crusaders 10.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.94 -5.00 9.90
Leicester Tigers 3.40 -6.14 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 3.25 7.35 -4.10
Sale Sharks 2.51 4.96 -2.50
Wasps 1.39 5.66 -4.30
Gloucester 1.33 -1.02 2.40
Harlequins 1.10 -1.08 2.20
Northampton Saints -0.11 -2.48 2.40
London Irish -1.58 -8.05 6.50
Bristol -3.13 1.28 -4.40
Bath -5.83 2.14 -8.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.27 -3.52 -4.80
Worcester Warriors -10.61 -5.71 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 13 35 – 31 -11.00 FALSE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 13 47 – 28 8.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Mar 13 21 – 36 -7.90 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Mar 13 26 – 24 6.20 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 14 29 – 38 1.50 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Mar 14 27 – 22 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 26 Gloucester 16.40
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 27 Sale Sharks -3.80
3 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 27 London Irish 3.00
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Mar 27 Saracens 12.60
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 27 Wasps 14.20
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 28 Exeter Chiefs 4.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 23.81 14.26 9.50
Storm 8.88 19.20 -10.30
Knights 8.36 -6.54 14.90
Broncos 7.52 -8.90 16.40
Eels 2.15 2.54 -0.40
Dragons 1.98 -7.99 10.00
Sea Eagles 1.44 10.99 -9.60
Titans 1.44 1.05 0.40
Raiders 0.50 -1.10 1.60
Rabbitohs -0.61 15.81 -16.40
Wests Tigers -0.62 -10.94 10.30
Sharks -2.70 -1.10 -1.60
Bulldogs -7.86 -10.25 2.40
Roosters -12.67 2.23 -14.90
Cowboys -14.65 -12.27 -2.40
Warriors -18.96 -8.99 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 10 28 – 6 6.30 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 11 24 – 19 3.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 11 – 4 -21.70 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 12 6 – 20 11.80 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons Mar 12 16 – 28 4.50 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Mar 12 16 – 26 -27.10 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Titans Mar 13 32 – 28 4.50 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Mar 13 4 – 6 1.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 Storm 12.50
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 18 Panthers -18.80
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 Sea Eagles -11.10
4 Titans vs. Warriors Mar 19 Titans 25.90
5 Sharks vs. Eels Mar 19 Eels -1.80
6 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 19 Raiders -12.10
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 20 Knights 12.00
8 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Mar 20 Broncos -12.40

 

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March 8, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.47 14.79 0.70
Munster 11.61 10.69 0.90
Ulster 9.11 7.41 1.70
Edinburgh 5.15 2.90 2.30
Glasgow 3.34 3.69 -0.30
Stormers 3.24 0.00 3.20
Bulls 2.80 3.65 -0.80
Sharks 2.58 -0.07 2.60
Connacht 0.18 1.72 -1.50
Scarlets -0.75 -0.77 0.00
Ospreys -0.85 0.94 -1.80
Cardiff Rugby -1.94 -0.11 -1.80
Lions -3.52 -3.91 0.40
Benetton -5.27 -4.50 -0.80
Dragons -8.49 -6.92 -1.60
Zebre -16.60 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Mar 05 56 – 8 8.00 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 05 48 – 12 15.50 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Leinster Mar 06 17 – 61 -11.30 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Dragons Mar 06 64 – 3 23.30 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 06 35 – 10 0.10 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Zebre Mar 07 27 – 22 24.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 13 Leinster -2.40
2 Sharks vs. Scarlets Mar 12 Sharks 9.80
3 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 13 Munster -2.30
4 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 13 Lions 4.90
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Mar 14 Stormers 26.30

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.43 6.78 0.60
Bordeaux-Begles 5.90 5.42 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.60 6.83 -1.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.26 5.09 0.20
Racing-Metro 92 5.26 6.13 -0.90
Lyon Rugby 4.92 4.15 0.80
Montpellier 4.40 -0.01 4.40
Castres Olympique 1.44 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 1.41 1.20 0.20
RC Toulonnais 0.47 1.82 -1.30
Section Paloise -1.25 -2.25 1.00
USA Perpignan -3.33 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -3.56 -3.19 -0.40
Biarritz -6.58 -2.78 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 06 17 – 45 1.20 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 06 16 – 23 15.00 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Mar 06 25 – 9 2.60 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 06 25 – 16 6.60 TRUE
5 La Rochelle vs. Brive Mar 06 41 – 15 16.50 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 06 34 – 13 -3.60 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 07 23 – 16 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Castres Olympique Mar 27 Brive 1.50
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 27 La Rochelle 8.70
3 Montpellier vs. Biarritz Mar 27 Montpellier 17.50
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Mar 27 Section Paloise 8.60
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 27 Stade Francais Paris 2.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 27 Stade Toulousain 7.20
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 27 RC Toulonnais 1.70

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.66 13.43 1.20
Blues 8.58 9.26 -0.70
Hurricanes 7.95 8.28 -0.30
Chiefs 6.92 5.56 1.40
Highlanders 5.12 6.54 -1.40
Brumbies 3.54 3.61 -0.10
Reds 2.52 1.37 1.10
Western Force -3.84 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -7.23 -9.00 1.80
Rebels -7.93 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.16 -10.00 -0.20
Fijian Drua -11.83 -10.00 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders Mar 04 12 – 33 -19.00 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Mar 04 31 – 26 0.90 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 04 16 – 29 0.60 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 05 24 – 22 8.10 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 05 21 – 14 8.60 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 05 27 – 20 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 11 Blues 9.00
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 11 Brumbies -6.00
3 Western Force vs. Waratahs Mar 11 Western Force 8.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 12 Hurricanes 23.60
5 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 12 Crusaders 13.20
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 12 Reds 19.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.52 -5.00 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 4.05 7.35 -3.30
Leicester Tigers 2.79 -6.14 8.90
Sale Sharks 2.79 4.96 -2.20
Wasps 1.58 5.66 -4.10
Gloucester 1.06 -1.02 2.10
Harlequins 0.51 -1.08 1.60
Northampton Saints -0.31 -2.48 2.20
London Irish -0.98 -8.05 7.10
Bristol -2.54 1.28 -3.80
Bath -5.83 2.14 -8.00
Newcastle Falcons -7.85 -3.52 -4.30
Worcester Warriors -11.40 -5.71 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 05 24 – 10 12.60 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Bristol Mar 06 29 – 27 1.10 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Mar 06 35 – 30 6.00 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 06 43 – 12 13.10 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 06 34 – 27 6.10 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Mar 07 19 – 12 5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 13 Exeter Chiefs -11.00
2 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 13 Leicester Tigers 8.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Mar 13 Saracens -7.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Mar 13 Sale Sharks 6.20
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 14 Bristol 1.50
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Mar 14 Northampton Saints 2.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.78 7.25 1.50
Sharks 5.45 4.13 1.30
Cheetahs 3.66 -2.70 6.40
Western Province -0.15 1.42 -1.60
Griquas -4.28 -4.92 0.60
Pumas -4.33 -3.31 -1.00
Lions -9.12 -1.88 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Mar 05 10 – 24 -3.50 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Bulls Mar 05 27 – 53 -5.40 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Mar 06 66 – 14 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Mar 17 Griquas 9.30
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Mar 17 Cheetahs 8.30
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 17 Bulls 7.80

 

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March 1, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.50 13.43 1.10
Blues 9.07 9.26 -0.20
Hurricanes 8.08 8.28 -0.20
Chiefs 6.43 5.56 0.90
Highlanders 5.00 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 4.13 3.61 0.50
Reds 1.79 1.37 0.40
Western Force -3.10 -4.96 1.90
Rebels -7.61 -5.79 -1.80
Waratahs -7.82 -9.00 1.20
Moana Pasifika -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Fijian Drua -12.16 -10.00 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 16 – 20 -4.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Feb 26 42 – 3 19.80 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 19 – 34 -2.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Western Force Feb 26 3 – 28 3.80 FALSE
5 Blues vs. Hurricanes Feb 27 32 – 33 1.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders Mar 04 Crusaders -19.00
2 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Mar 04 Fijian Drua 0.90
3 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 04 Western Force 0.60
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 05 Blues 8.10
5 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 05 Hurricanes 8.60
6 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 05 Brumbies 17.40

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.01 14.79 -0.80
Munster 9.97 10.69 -0.70
Ulster 8.10 7.41 0.70
Glasgow 4.52 3.69 0.80
Edinburgh 3.42 2.90 0.50
Stormers 3.24 0.00 3.20
Bulls 2.80 3.65 -0.80
Sharks 2.58 -0.07 2.60
Connacht 1.90 1.72 0.20
Ospreys 0.10 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.93 -0.77 -1.20
Lions -3.52 -3.91 0.40
Benetton -3.81 -4.50 0.70
Dragons -6.85 -6.92 0.10
Zebre -17.56 -13.47 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Lions Feb 26 21 – 13 25.80 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Bulls Feb 26 7 – 45 -11.40 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Sharks Feb 27 7 – 29 2.40 FALSE
4 Connacht vs. Stormers Feb 27 19 – 17 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 05 Bulls 4.60
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Mar 05 Edinburgh 8.00
3 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 05 Sharks 11.10
4 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 05 Ulster 15.50
5 Benetton vs. Leinster Mar 06 Leinster -11.30
6 Munster vs. Dragons Mar 06 Munster 23.30
7 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 06 Scarlets 0.10
8 Ospreys vs. Zebre Mar 07 Ospreys 24.20

 

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