Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
I forgot about the time difference between New Zealand and Australia so that the postponed game has already finished. So here are the predictions for the weekend.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 14.59 | 13.43 | 1.20 |
| Blues | 8.87 | 9.26 | -0.40 |
| Chiefs | 8.22 | 5.56 | 2.70 |
| Hurricanes | 6.98 | 8.28 | -1.30 |
| Highlanders | 4.40 | 6.54 | -2.10 |
| Brumbies | 3.81 | 3.61 | 0.20 |
| Reds | 1.83 | 1.37 | 0.50 |
| Western Force | -3.91 | -4.96 | 1.10 |
| Waratahs | -6.95 | -9.00 | 2.00 |
| Rebels | -7.92 | -5.79 | -2.10 |
| Moana Pasifika | -9.98 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Fijian Drua | -11.63 | -10.00 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Blues | Mar 29 | 19 – 32 | -20.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Apr 01 | Crusaders | 15.70 |
| 2 | Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs | Apr 01 | Fijian Drua | 0.80 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Moana Pasifika | Apr 02 | Blues | 24.30 |
| 4 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Apr 02 | Reds | 3.50 |
| 5 | Hurricanes vs. Chiefs | Apr 03 | Hurricanes | 4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
What’s your prediction for the hurricanes v chiefs game this Sunday?
2 years ago
Thanks. I missed that game which was scheduled earlier and postponed.
I have updated to include it now.
2 years ago