Posts written by David Scott (1769)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 10, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

I got caught again this week with the Sharks versus Bulls game, which was originally listed to be a home game for the Bulls, but in fact was played in Durban. I think it was thus the Round 6 game. I have changed the prediction to reflect the reality of where the game was played so that my ratings are properly updated for future predictions.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.32 5.19 0.10
Bulls 4.98 5.14 -0.20
Western Province 1.80 3.28 -1.50
Lions 0.88 3.74 -2.90
Cheetahs -2.76 -2.17 -0.60
Pumas -4.18 -5.67 1.50
Griquas -6.04 -9.50 3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 06 42 – 45 -4.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 07 35 – 28 2.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 07 40 – 39 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 11 Sharks -6.50
2 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 11 Bulls 14.00
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 12 Lions -0.60

 

August 4, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.13 14.53 9.60
Rabbitohs 11.22 7.73 3.50
Panthers 10.86 8.88 2.00
Sea Eagles 9.02 -4.77 13.80
Roosters 7.02 10.25 -3.20
Eels 6.64 1.68 5.00
Titans -1.88 -7.22 5.30
Raiders -2.20 6.98 -9.20
Sharks -3.68 -0.76 -2.90
Wests Tigers -5.32 -3.07 -2.30
Warriors -5.64 -1.84 -3.80
Knights -5.92 -2.61 -3.30
Dragons -8.34 -4.95 -3.40
Broncos -11.32 -11.16 -0.20
Cowboys -11.86 -8.05 -3.80
Bulldogs -14.73 -7.62 -7.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 29 28 – 0 -5.20 FALSE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 30 16 – 18 0.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Jul 30 37 – 18 0.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 31 14 – 50 -16.10 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Raiders Jul 31 34 – 24 -6.60 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 31 37 – 10 10.40 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 01 6 – 34 -13.30 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 01 22 – 40 -11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 05 Knights 5.40
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 06 Raiders 6.10
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 Rabbitohs -4.60
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 07 Sharks -2.00
5 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 07 Panthers -3.80
6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 07 Storm -15.10
7 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 Wests Tigers -9.40
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 08 Titans 13.00

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 10.71 10.71 0.00
Auckland 7.95 7.95 0.00
Canterbury 6.44 6.44 0.00
North Harbour 5.75 5.75 -0.00
Wellington 5.62 5.62 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 5.20 5.20 0.00
Hawke’s Bay 4.07 4.07 0.00
Waikato 2.52 2.52 0.00
Otago -3.47 -3.47 -0.00
Taranaki -4.52 -4.52 0.00
Northland -4.75 -4.75 0.00
Counties Manukau -10.22 -10.22 0.00
Southland -10.39 -10.39 -0.00
Manawatu -14.72 -14.72 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Aug 06 Counties Manukau -1.00
2 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 07 Hawke’s Bay -5.10
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 07 Wellington 13.90
4 Otago vs. Southland Aug 07 Otago 10.40
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Aug 08 Tasman -2.00
6 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 08 North Harbour 6.70
7 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 08 Auckland 5.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 5.22 5.14 0.10
Sharks 5.08 5.19 -0.10
Western Province 2.16 3.28 -1.10
Lions 0.99 3.74 -2.80
Cheetahs -3.12 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.18 -5.67 1.50
Griquas -6.14 -9.50 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 30 33 – 36 9.20 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Bulls Jul 31 13 – 34 1.50 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 31 27 – 37 16.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 06 Lions -4.10
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 07 Bulls 3.10
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 07 Western Province 8.30

 

July 27, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 22.69 14.53 8.20
Panthers 12.30 8.88 3.40
Rabbitohs 9.52 7.73 1.80
Eels 9.43 1.68 7.70
Sea Eagles 8.42 -4.77 13.20
Roosters 4.24 10.25 -6.00
Raiders -0.76 6.98 -7.70
Sharks -3.08 -0.76 -2.30
Titans -3.17 -7.22 4.10
Wests Tigers -5.03 -3.07 -2.00
Warriors -5.93 -1.84 -4.10
Dragons -6.63 -4.95 -1.70
Knights -7.36 -2.61 -4.80
Cowboys -10.24 -8.05 -2.20
Broncos -12.93 -11.16 -1.80
Bulldogs -13.45 -7.62 -5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Raiders Jul 22 10 – 12 12.80 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 23 28 – 8 9.80 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 23 16 – 20 -35.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jul 24 60 – 22 10.80 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 44 – 24 12.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 24 18 – 12 25.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 25 10 – 32 -3.20 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 25 24 – 44 -8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 29 Eels -5.20
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 30 Wests Tigers 0.90
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Jul 30 Broncos 0.30
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 31 Rabbitohs -16.10
5 Knights vs. Raiders Jul 31 Raiders -6.60
6 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 31 Storm 10.40
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 01 Titans -13.30
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 01 Sea Eagles -11.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.96 5.19 0.80
Bulls 4.43 5.14 -0.70
Western Province 2.96 3.28 -0.30
Lions 1.51 3.74 -2.20
Cheetahs -3.12 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.70 -5.67 1.00
Griquas -7.02 -9.50 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 24 30 – 47 -5.10 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Western Province Jul 25 23 – 37 -3.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 25 40 – 21 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 30 Lions 9.20
2 Western Province vs. Bulls Jul 31 Western Province 1.50
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 31 Sharks 16.00

 

July 25, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

I got caught out with the Round 6 games being played midweek so missed out on predicting one game prior to it being played. As always my predictions are not altered even though made after the game has been played. The Currie Cup is proving difficult to predict however.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Western Province 2.50 3.28 -0.80
Lions 2.08 3.74 -1.70
Cheetahs -2.61 -2.17 -0.40
Pumas -4.24 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -7.02 -9.50 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 21 31 – 41 13.80 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jul 21 38 – 21 -3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 24 Sharks -5.10
2 Pumas vs. Western Province Jul 25 Western Province -3.70
3 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 25 Bulls 4.80

 

July 20, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 25.32 14.53 10.80
Panthers 13.99 8.88 5.10
Eels 10.72 1.68 9.00
Sea Eagles 7.70 -4.77 12.50
Rabbitohs 7.21 7.73 -0.50
Roosters 3.33 10.25 -6.90
Raiders -2.05 6.98 -9.00
Warriors -3.63 -1.84 -1.80
Sharks -4.12 -0.76 -3.40
Wests Tigers -4.31 -3.07 -1.20
Titans -4.79 -7.22 2.40
Dragons -5.01 -4.95 -0.10
Knights -6.45 -2.61 -3.80
Bulldogs -12.41 -7.62 -4.80
Cowboys -12.87 -8.05 -4.80
Broncos -14.62 -11.16 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Eels Jul 16 8 – 26 -11.30 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 16 32 – 18 12.40 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 17 34 – 18 -0.90 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 17 18 – 34 -12.50 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Knights Jul 17 48 – 4 29.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 18 16 – 30 -18.40 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 24 – 42 -5.00 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 32 – 24 22.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Raiders Jul 22 Eels 12.80
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 23 Roosters 9.80
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 23 Storm -35.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jul 24 Rabbitohs 10.80
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 Sea Eagles 12.00
6 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 24 Panthers 25.60
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 25 Titans -3.20
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 25 Sharks -8.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

No actual games played last weekend so previous week results are for two weekends ago. Whether games will be played this weekend, who knows.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Western Province 3.25 3.28 -0.00
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.36 -2.17 -1.20
Pumas -4.24 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -7.85 -9.50 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 28 – 30 15.40 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 17 – 16 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 21 Lions 13.80
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jul 21 Western Province -3.60
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 22 Sharks 4.60

 

July 13, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

Please note that I have treated most games as being played on neutral grounds, the exceptions being the Titans, Cowboys and Broncos home games. The NRL has announced that all clubs will be moved to Queensland and the games will be played at the same dates and times. However many of the games have their location still listed as TBA on the NRL website. I may have to issue an update later this week if the supposition of neutral grounds turns out to not be true. The most likely game where this might be the case is the Storm versus Knights game.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.02 14.53 9.50
Panthers 14.40 8.88 5.50
Eels 10.11 1.68 8.40
Rabbitohs 8.45 7.73 0.70
Sea Eagles 7.54 -4.77 12.30
Roosters 3.00 10.25 -7.20
Sharks -2.66 -0.76 -1.90
Raiders -3.51 6.98 -10.50
Warriors -4.04 -1.84 -2.20
Titans -4.18 -7.22 3.00
Dragons -4.85 -4.95 0.10
Knights -5.15 -2.61 -2.50
Wests Tigers -5.45 -3.07 -2.40
Cowboys -12.55 -8.05 -4.50
Broncos -13.48 -11.16 -2.30
Bulldogs -13.65 -7.62 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jul 08 16 – 30 19.70 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 09 46 – 18 23.10 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 10 16 – 22 -15.30 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 11 20 – 12 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Eels Jul 16 Eels -11.30
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 16 Sea Eagles 15.40
3 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 17 Raiders 2.10
4 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 17 Roosters -12.50
5 Storm vs. Knights Jul 17 Storm 32.20
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 18 Panthers -21.40
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 Wests Tigers -5.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 Rabbitohs 25.10

 

View comments (1)
« Later posts
Earlier posts »