NRL Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
Please note that I have treated most games as being played on neutral grounds, the exceptions being the Titans, Cowboys and Broncos home games. The NRL has announced that all clubs will be moved to Queensland and the games will be played at the same dates and times. However many of the games have their location still listed as TBA on the NRL website. I may have to issue an update later this week if the supposition of neutral grounds turns out to not be true. The most likely game where this might be the case is the Storm versus Knights game.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 24.02 | 14.53 | 9.50 |
| Panthers | 14.40 | 8.88 | 5.50 |
| Eels | 10.11 | 1.68 | 8.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 8.45 | 7.73 | 0.70 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.54 | -4.77 | 12.30 |
| Roosters | 3.00 | 10.25 | -7.20 |
| Sharks | -2.66 | -0.76 | -1.90 |
| Raiders | -3.51 | 6.98 | -10.50 |
| Warriors | -4.04 | -1.84 | -2.20 |
| Titans | -4.18 | -7.22 | 3.00 |
| Dragons | -4.85 | -4.95 | 0.10 |
| Knights | -5.15 | -2.61 | -2.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.45 | -3.07 | -2.40 |
| Cowboys | -12.55 | -8.05 | -4.50 |
| Broncos | -13.48 | -11.16 | -2.30 |
| Bulldogs | -13.65 | -7.62 | -6.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Jul 08 | 16 – 30 | 19.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Jul 09 | 46 – 18 | 23.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Jul 10 | 16 – 22 | -15.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Jul 11 | 20 – 12 | 3.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Eels | Jul 16 | Eels | -11.30 |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Dragons | Jul 16 | Sea Eagles | 15.40 |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Jul 17 | Raiders | 2.10 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Roosters | Jul 17 | Roosters | -12.50 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Knights | Jul 17 | Storm | 32.20 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Jul 18 | Panthers | -21.40 |
| 7 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 18 | Wests Tigers | -5.00 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Jul 18 | Rabbitohs | 25.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Nice tipping experts around the weeks
3 years ago