Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 13, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

A note concerning treatment of cancelled games, or where a 0-0 score is allocated. I delete any cancelled games from my database, but also any games with an awarded result. That is because awarded result games will almost always cause an adjustment to my ratings which is not justifiable.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Western Province 3.25 3.28 -0.00
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.36 -2.17 -1.20
Pumas -4.24 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -7.85 -9.50 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 28 – 30 15.40 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 17 – 16 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Jul 17 Sharks 12.70
2 Griquas vs. Bulls Jul 17 Bulls -8.70
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs Jul 17 Lions 9.30

 

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July 6, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.02 14.53 9.50
Panthers 14.40 8.88 5.50
Sea Eagles 10.37 -4.77 15.10
Eels 10.11 1.68 8.40
Rabbitohs 7.99 7.73 0.30
Roosters 3.83 10.25 -6.40
Sharks -3.07 -0.76 -2.30
Warriors -3.63 -1.84 -1.80
Titans -4.18 -7.22 3.00
Dragons -4.85 -4.95 0.10
Knights -5.15 -2.61 -2.50
Wests Tigers -5.45 -3.07 -2.40
Raiders -6.34 6.98 -13.30
Cowboys -12.09 -8.05 -4.00
Broncos -13.48 -11.16 -2.30
Bulldogs -14.48 -7.62 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 01 0 – 46 -11.40 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 02 18 – 19 -2.00 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 02 13 – 12 8.70 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 03 0 – 66 -13.20 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 03 6 – 44 8.50 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Cowboys Jul 03 38 – 0 4.30 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 26 – 18 -10.60 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 22 – 38 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jul 08 Sea Eagles 19.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 09 Rabbitohs 23.10
3 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 10 Roosters -15.30
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 11 Sharks 3.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Western Province 3.91 3.28 0.60
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.04 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.56 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -8.52 -9.50 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 02 26 – 22 7.60 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Jul 03 32 – 31 1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 Western Province 15.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 Cheetahs 4.50
3 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 10 Sharks 5.50

 

June 29, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 3.96 3.28 0.70
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.04 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.23 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -8.84 -9.50 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 38 – 32 1.40 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 32 – 27 11.80 TRUE
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 31 – 10 -4.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jul 01 Bulls -3.90
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 02 Pumas 7.60
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jul 03 Western Province 1.60

 

June 22, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.84 2.32 5.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.93 6.21 0.70
Stade Toulousain 6.71 4.80 1.90
Bordeaux-Begles 5.27 2.83 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 19 – 6 5.30 TRUE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 24 – 21 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Jun 26 Stade Toulousain 4.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.78 7.35 2.40
Sale Sharks 5.77 4.96 0.80
Bristol 4.72 1.28 3.40
Harlequins 3.43 -1.08 4.50
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 36 – 43 7.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 40 – 30 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 27 Exeter Chiefs -6.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 21.12 14.53 6.60
Panthers 15.10 8.88 6.20
Eels 9.41 1.68 7.70
Rabbitohs 7.38 7.73 -0.40
Roosters 6.73 10.25 -3.50
Sea Eagles 6.04 -4.77 10.80
Sharks -1.46 -0.76 -0.70
Raiders -2.50 6.98 -9.50
Warriors -3.73 -1.84 -1.90
Dragons -4.75 -4.95 0.20
Wests Tigers -4.83 -3.07 -1.80
Knights -7.98 -2.61 -5.40
Titans -8.02 -7.22 -0.80
Cowboys -9.26 -8.05 -1.20
Bulldogs -10.15 -7.62 -2.50
Broncos -15.09 -11.16 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 17 0 – 46 -14.10 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 18 24 – 26 -5.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 18 38 – 12 8.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 19 10 – 6 -2.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Raiders Jun 19 22 – 20 0.40 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 66 – 16 24.60 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 20 36 – 10 21.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 24 – 56 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 01 Storm -11.40
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 02 Dragons -2.00
3 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 02 Panthers 8.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 03 Sea Eagles -13.20
5 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 03 Raiders 8.50
6 Knights vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Knights 4.30
7 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 Sharks -10.60
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 Rabbitohs -9.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 4.22 3.28 0.90
Bulls 4.19 5.14 -0.90
Lions 2.65 3.74 -1.10
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -4.58 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -9.71 -9.50 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 39 – 10 -6.40 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 16 – 30 -11.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 24 – 48 4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 Lions 1.40
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 Bulls 11.80
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 Cheetahs -4.50

 

June 19, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.19 5.19 0.00
Bulls 5.14 5.14 0.00
Lions 3.74 3.74 -0.00
Western Province 3.28 3.28 0.00
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -5.67 -5.67 -0.00
Griquas -9.50 -9.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 Lions -6.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 Sharks -11.70
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 Bulls 4.90

 

June 15, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.47 6.21 1.30
La Rochelle 7.30 2.32 5.00
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Bordeaux-Begles 4.95 2.83 2.10
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 12 38 – 21 11.00 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jun 12 25 – 16 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 La Rochelle 5.30
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 Stade Toulousain 7.60

 

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