Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 15, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.79 14.49 0.30
Blues 9.30 7.80 1.50
Hurricanes 8.02 7.13 0.90
Highlanders 5.41 2.70 2.70
Chiefs 5.31 4.38 0.90
Brumbies 2.02 1.47 0.50
Reds 0.53 1.59 -1.10
Rebels -6.39 -3.51 -2.90
Western Force -10.06 -13.05 3.00
Waratahs -10.96 -5.02 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds Jun 11 43 – 14 12.90 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 11 12 – 33 4.70 FALSE
3 Rebels vs. Crusaders Jun 12 26 – 52 -20.50 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Western Force Jun 12 31 – 21 27.00 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Jun 12 7 – 40 -8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 19 Blues 9.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.63 7.35 2.30
Sale Sharks 5.91 4.96 0.90
Bristol 5.49 1.28 4.20
Harlequins 2.66 -1.08 3.70
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Jun 13 30 – 24 1.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 13 20 – 19 9.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 13 54 – 26 14.80 TRUE
4 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 31 – 38 6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 Bristol 7.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 Exeter Chiefs 8.20

 

Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.79 15.74 -1.00
Munster 10.69 9.13 1.60
Ulster 7.41 8.77 -1.40
Bulls 4.63 1.70 2.90
Glasgow Warriors 3.69 2.64 1.00
Edinburgh 2.90 3.48 -0.60
Connacht 1.72 2.50 -0.80
Ospreys 0.94 -0.65 1.60
Stormers 0.00 0.80 -0.80
Sharks -0.07 1.16 -1.20
Cardiff Blues -0.11 0.73 -0.80
Scarlets -0.77 0.41 -1.20
Lions -3.91 -3.00 -0.90
Treviso -5.48 -6.46 1.00
Dragons -6.92 -6.39 -0.50
Zebre -13.47 -14.52 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Munster Jun 12 11 – 54 -15.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Jun 12 38 – 7 27.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 13 22 – 34 1.40 FALSE
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jun 13 28 – 28 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Bulls Jun 20 Bulls -3.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.96 14.53 4.40
Panthers 13.56 8.88 4.70
Eels 9.02 1.68 7.30
Roosters 8.27 10.25 -2.00
Rabbitohs 4.69 7.73 -3.00
Sea Eagles 3.89 -4.77 8.70
Sharks -1.13 -0.76 -0.40
Raiders -2.35 6.98 -9.30
Wests Tigers -2.67 -3.07 0.40
Warriors -3.14 -1.84 -1.30
Dragons -4.91 -4.95 0.00
Titans -5.87 -7.22 1.40
Knights -8.57 -2.61 -6.00
Cowboys -9.59 -8.05 -1.50
Bulldogs -9.76 -7.62 -2.10
Broncos -12.41 -11.16 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 11 50 – 18 13.20 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Panthers Jun 11 19 – 18 -14.40 FALSE
3 Titans vs. Roosters Jun 12 34 – 35 -13.30 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 12 24 – 10 16.80 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 12 38 – 16 11.10 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 13 16 – 42 -21.20 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jun 13 40 – 12 11.90 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 14 28 – 6 -6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 17 Rabbitohs -14.10
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 18 Sharks -5.50
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 18 Panthers 8.30
4 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 19 Warriors -2.40
5 Dragons vs. Raiders Jun 19 Dragons 0.40
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 Storm 24.60
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 20 Eels 21.80
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 Sea Eagles -6.80

 

June 8, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.30 2.32 5.00
Racing-Metro 92 7.05 6.21 0.80
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.54 3.22 2.30
Bordeaux-Begles 4.65 2.83 1.80
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Stade Francais Paris 1.59 -3.22 4.80
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 127 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 06 9 – 12 -1.70 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 06 10 – 21 4.20 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 46 – 24 3.60 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 25 – 20 3.50 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. SU Agen Jun 06 52 – 7 28.10 TRUE
6 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Jun 06 55 – 12 14.10 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Jun 06 41 – 25 1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 12 Racing-Metro 92 11.00
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jun 12 Bordeaux-Begles 4.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.46 14.49 -0.00
Blues 9.87 7.80 2.10
Hurricanes 7.46 7.13 0.30
Highlanders 4.61 2.70 1.90
Chiefs 4.53 4.38 0.20
Brumbies 2.83 1.47 1.40
Reds 1.09 1.59 -0.50
Rebels -6.06 -3.51 -2.50
Waratahs -10.18 -5.02 -5.20
Western Force -10.64 -13.05 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Western Force Jun 04 29 – 21 33.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Blues Jun 04 24 – 31 -1.60 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Jun 05 59 – 23 20.20 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 12 – 10 1.80 TRUE
5 Chiefs vs. Rebels Jun 06 36 – 26 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds Jun 11 Hurricanes 12.90
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 11 Brumbies 4.70
3 Rebels vs. Crusaders Jun 12 Crusaders -20.50
4 Blues vs. Western Force Jun 12 Blues 27.00
5 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Jun 12 Chiefs -8.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.11 7.35 2.80
Bristol 5.49 1.28 4.20
Sale Sharks 5.44 4.96 0.50
Harlequins 1.95 -1.08 3.00
Northampton Saints -0.48 -2.48 2.00
Wasps -1.21 5.66 -6.90
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Bath -3.08 2.14 -5.20
Leicester Tigers -3.44 -6.14 2.70
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -8.32 -10.00 1.70
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jun 05 45 – 12 5.30 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jun 06 23 – 26 -4.70 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Wasps Jun 06 36 – 39 -1.20 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Jun 06 24 – 14 5.40 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 07 26 – 29 -6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Jun 13 Bath 1.90
2 Bristol vs. London Irish Jun 13 Bristol 17.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 13 Exeter Chiefs 9.20
4 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 13 Harlequins 14.80
5 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 Wasps 6.70
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Jun 13 Gloucester -2.70

 

Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.49 15.74 -1.30
Munster 9.78 9.13 0.70
Ulster 7.41 8.77 -1.40
Bulls 4.08 1.70 2.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.69 2.64 1.00
Edinburgh 2.58 3.48 -0.90
Connacht 1.72 2.50 -0.80
Ospreys 0.94 -0.65 1.60
Sharks 0.48 1.16 -0.70
Stormers 0.00 0.80 -0.80
Cardiff Blues -0.11 0.73 -0.80
Scarlets -0.46 0.41 -0.90
Lions -3.91 -3.00 -0.90
Treviso -5.48 -6.46 1.00
Dragons -6.62 -6.39 -0.20
Zebre -12.56 -14.52 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 05 37 – 12 7.80 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Jun 05 21 – 33 8.80 FALSE
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Jun 05 31 – 34 -4.60 TRUE
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Jun 06 31 – 34 20.60 FALSE
5 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Jun 06 37 – 12 -0.00 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 06 21 – 33 1.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Munster Jun 12 Munster -15.80
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Jun 12 Leinster 27.60
3 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 13 Stormers 8.90
4 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 13 Sharks 1.40
5 Ospreys vs. Treviso Jun 13 Ospreys 12.90
6 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jun 13 Scarlets 3.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.52 14.53 4.00
Panthers 14.91 8.88 6.00
Roosters 9.35 10.25 -0.90
Eels 7.62 1.68 5.90
Rabbitohs 4.98 7.73 -2.80
Sea Eagles 2.27 -4.77 7.00
Wests Tigers -1.27 -3.07 1.80
Sharks -2.48 -0.76 -1.70
Dragons -2.49 -4.95 2.50
Warriors -2.70 -1.84 -0.90
Raiders -3.31 6.98 -10.30
Titans -6.96 -7.22 0.30
Cowboys -7.97 -8.05 0.10
Knights -8.85 -2.61 -6.20
Broncos -11.44 -11.16 -0.30
Bulldogs -12.18 -7.62 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Jun 03 52 – 24 8.60 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 04 26 – 6 -19.80 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Titans Jun 05 20 – 14 33.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Eels Jun 06 4 – 40 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 11 Sea Eagles 13.20
2 Sharks vs. Panthers Jun 11 Panthers -14.40
3 Titans vs. Roosters Jun 12 Roosters -13.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 12 Rabbitohs 16.80
5 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 12 Raiders 11.10
6 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 13 Storm -21.20
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jun 13 Eels 11.90
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 14 Dragons -6.70

 

June 1, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.41 2.32 5.10
Stade Toulousain 6.49 4.80 1.70
Racing-Metro 92 6.18 6.21 -0.00
Clermont Auvergne 5.44 3.22 2.20
Bordeaux-Begles 5.18 2.83 2.40
Lyon Rugby 3.97 5.61 -1.60
RC Toulonnais 2.54 3.56 -1.00
Stade Francais Paris 1.50 -3.22 4.70
Montpellier 1.04 2.30 -1.30
Castres Olympique 0.67 -0.47 1.10
Brive -2.41 -3.26 0.90
Section Paloise -3.08 -4.48 1.40
Aviron Bayonnais -5.73 -4.13 -1.60
SU Agen -18.62 -4.72 -13.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby May 29 46 – 27 1.80 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 30 28 – 33 3.10 FALSE
3 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise May 30 51 – 27 15.30 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 30 23 – 19 13.00 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 30 25 – 19 2.30 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne May 30 36 – 27 6.20 TRUE
7 SU Agen vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 30 14 – 54 -17.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 06 Stade Francais Paris -1.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 06 Bordeaux-Begles 4.20
3 Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 Castres Olympique 3.60
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 Clermont Auvergne 3.50
5 Lyon Rugby vs. SU Agen Jun 06 Lyon Rugby 28.10
6 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Jun 06 Racing-Metro 92 14.10
7 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Jun 06 Section Paloise 1.40

 

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