Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 1, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.26 14.49 0.80
Blues 9.55 7.80 1.80
Hurricanes 7.47 7.13 0.30
Chiefs 4.57 4.38 0.20
Highlanders 4.06 2.70 1.40
Brumbies 2.82 1.47 1.30
Reds 1.41 1.59 -0.20
Rebels -6.10 -3.51 -2.60
Waratahs -9.63 -5.02 -4.60
Western Force -11.43 -13.05 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 58 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Western Force May 28 43 – 6 24.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 29 28 – 54 -17.70 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 29 38 – 10 12.10 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Chiefs May 29 40 – 34 3.00 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 30 42 – 27 9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Western Force Jun 04 Crusaders 33.20
2 Reds vs. Blues Jun 04 Blues -1.60
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels Jun 05 Chiefs 17.20
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Jun 05 Highlanders 20.20
5 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 Brumbies 1.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.41 7.35 3.10
Bristol 5.63 1.28 4.30
Sale Sharks 4.09 4.96 -0.90
Harlequins 3.29 -1.08 4.40
Northampton Saints -0.78 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.36 5.66 -7.00
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Bath -3.08 2.14 -5.20
Leicester Tigers -3.58 -6.14 2.60
London Irish -7.02 -8.05 1.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.61 -10.00 1.40
Worcester Warriors -9.51 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. London Irish May 29 30 – 28 9.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol May 29 22 – 12 2.00 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Bath May 30 44 – 33 10.80 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps May 30 30 – 25 5.10 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers May 30 17 – 18 -1.50 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 31 74 – 3 18.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jun 05 Sale Sharks 5.30
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jun 06 Gloucester 5.00
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jun 06 Bristol -4.70
4 London Irish vs. Wasps Jun 06 Wasps -1.20
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Jun 06 Newcastle Falcons 5.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 07 Exeter Chiefs -6.70

 

Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.63 15.74 -1.10
Munster 9.78 9.13 0.70
Ulster 8.27 8.77 -0.50
Glasgow Warriors 3.55 2.64 0.90
Bulls 3.42 1.70 1.70
Connacht 2.47 2.50 -0.00
Edinburgh 1.73 3.48 -1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.72 0.73 -0.00
Stormers 0.66 0.80 -0.10
Ospreys 0.18 -0.65 0.80
Sharks -0.08 1.16 -1.20
Scarlets -0.46 0.41 -0.90
Lions -3.35 -3.00 -0.30
Treviso -5.48 -6.46 1.00
Dragons -6.62 -6.39 -0.20
Zebre -13.38 -14.52 1.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Stormers May 22 22 – 25 5.80 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Bulls May 22 34 – 33 -2.40 FALSE
3 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues May 29 31 – 27 16.60 TRUE
4 Treviso vs. Connacht May 30 20 – 12 -2.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors May 30 16 – 27 -2.10 TRUE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 05 Bulls 7.80
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Jun 05 Connacht 8.80
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Jun 05 Leinster -4.60
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Jun 06 Cardiff Blues 20.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Jun 06 Ulster -0.00
6 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 06 Lions 1.70
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NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.82 14.53 6.30
Panthers 18.22 8.88 9.30
Roosters 9.35 10.25 -0.90
Eels 5.32 1.68 3.60
Rabbitohs 4.98 7.73 -2.80
Sea Eagles 2.27 -4.77 7.00
Sharks -2.48 -0.76 -1.70
Warriors -2.70 -1.84 -0.90
Raiders -3.31 6.98 -10.30
Dragons -4.16 -4.95 0.80
Wests Tigers -4.58 -3.07 -1.50
Knights -6.55 -2.61 -3.90
Cowboys -7.97 -8.05 0.10
Titans -9.26 -7.22 -2.00
Broncos -9.77 -11.16 1.40
Bulldogs -12.18 -7.62 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm May 27 12 – 40 -27.50 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors May 28 29 – 28 -3.00 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 28 34 – 18 -0.20 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 29 30 – 4 35.00 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 29 38 – 20 -0.50 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Raiders May 29 44 – 16 13.10 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Titans May 30 38 – 10 6.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sea Eagles May 30 18 – 10 -8.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Jun 03 Dragons 8.60
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 04 Panthers -19.80
3 Storm vs. Titans Jun 05 Storm 33.10
4 Knights vs. Eels Jun 06 Eels -8.90

 

May 26, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.05 2.32 4.70
Stade Toulousain 6.29 4.80 1.50
Clermont Auvergne 5.64 3.22 2.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.46 6.21 -0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 5.44 2.83 2.60
Lyon Rugby 4.56 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 2.28 3.56 -1.30
Montpellier 1.40 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris 0.91 -3.22 4.10
Castres Olympique 0.34 -0.47 0.80
Brive -2.08 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -2.72 -4.48 1.80
Aviron Bayonnais -6.09 -4.13 -2.00
SU Agen -17.91 -4.72 -13.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 22 3 – 49 -14.90 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier May 26 57 – 9 7.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby May 29 Stade Francais Paris 1.80
2 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 30 Brive 3.10
3 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise May 30 La Rochelle 15.30
4 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 30 Montpellier 13.00
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 30 RC Toulonnais 2.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne May 30 Stade Toulousain 6.20
7 SU Agen vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 30 Racing-Metro 92 -17.90

 

May 25, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

By

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.93 14.49 0.40
Blues 9.01 7.80 1.20
Hurricanes 7.02 7.13 -0.10
Chiefs 4.75 4.38 0.40
Highlanders 3.73 2.70 1.00
Brumbies 3.36 1.47 1.90
Reds 1.23 1.59 -0.40
Rebels -5.77 -3.51 -2.30
Waratahs -9.31 -5.02 -4.30
Western Force -10.98 -13.05 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 21 35 – 13 18.90 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Highlanders May 21 15 – 25 -8.00 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Waratahs May 22 48 – 21 24.50 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Brumbies May 22 40 – 19 6.90 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Crusaders May 22 28 – 63 -5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Western Force May 28 Hurricanes 24.50
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 29 Crusaders -17.70
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 29 Blues 12.10
4 Reds vs. Chiefs May 29 Reds 3.00
5 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 30 Highlanders 9.50

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.76 14.53 6.20
Panthers 19.02 8.88 10.10
Roosters 8.05 10.25 -2.20
Eels 6.92 1.68 5.20
Sea Eagles 3.73 -4.77 8.50
Rabbitohs 3.37 7.73 -4.40
Raiders -2.00 6.98 -9.00
Warriors -2.32 -1.84 -0.50
Dragons -2.74 -4.95 2.20
Sharks -4.36 -0.76 -3.60
Wests Tigers -5.99 -3.07 -2.90
Titans -7.37 -7.22 -0.10
Knights -8.00 -2.61 -5.40
Cowboys -8.34 -8.05 -0.30
Broncos -9.72 -11.16 1.40
Bulldogs -12.99 -7.62 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Knights May 20 36 – 20 -0.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers May 21 30 – 26 3.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Dragons May 21 13 – 12 1.50 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 22 30 – 20 8.30 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Broncos May 22 16 – 34 28.40 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Storm May 22 10 – 34 -18.80 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers May 23 12 – 56 -6.40 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 23 6 – 28 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm May 27 Storm -27.50
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors May 28 Warriors -3.00
3 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 28 Dragons -0.20
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 29 Panthers 35.00
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 29 Eels -0.50
6 Roosters vs. Raiders May 29 Roosters 13.10
7 Sharks vs. Titans May 30 Sharks 6.00
8 Knights vs. Sea Eagles May 30 Sea Eagles -8.70

 

May 19, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.10 7.35 0.80
Bristol 6.09 1.28 4.80
Sale Sharks 3.62 4.96 -1.30
Harlequins 3.28 -1.08 4.40
Northampton Saints -0.77 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.36 5.66 -7.00
Gloucester -2.11 -1.02 -1.10
Bath -3.06 2.14 -5.20
Leicester Tigers -3.54 -6.14 2.60
Newcastle Falcons -6.31 -10.00 3.70
London Irish -7.49 -8.05 0.60
Worcester Warriors -9.55 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks May 15 20 – 24 -1.80 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins May 16 35 – 29 -3.40 FALSE
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors May 16 23 – 19 13.80 TRUE
4 Bristol vs. Gloucester May 18 39 – 7 10.50 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints May 18 18 – 10 -2.20 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 12 – 31 -10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. London Irish May 29 Gloucester 9.90
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol May 29 Sale Sharks 2.00
3 Harlequins vs. Bath May 30 Harlequins 10.80
4 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps May 30 Northampton Saints 5.10
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers May 30 Leicester Tigers -1.50
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 31 Exeter Chiefs 18.90

 

May 18, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

By

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.05 2.32 4.70
Stade Toulousain 6.29 4.80 1.50
Clermont Auvergne 5.64 3.22 2.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.46 6.21 -0.80
Lyon Rugby 4.56 5.61 -1.10
Bordeaux-Begles 3.39 2.83 0.60
Montpellier 2.53 2.30 0.20
RC Toulonnais 2.28 3.56 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris 0.91 -3.22 4.10
Castres Olympique 0.34 -0.47 0.80
Brive -2.08 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -2.72 -4.48 1.80
Aviron Bayonnais -6.09 -4.13 -2.00
SU Agen -16.98 -4.72 -12.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 166 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 15 29 – 35 -2.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique May 16 20 – 16 9.30 TRUE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais May 16 25 – 16 8.80 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. SU Agen May 16 59 – 0 27.70 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Brive May 16 24 – 7 11.30 TRUE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier May 16 32 – 10 2.60 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 16 28 – 32 19.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 22 Bordeaux-Begles -14.90
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier May 26 Bordeaux-Begles 6.40

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.03 14.49 -0.50
Blues 8.86 7.80 1.10
Hurricanes 6.83 7.13 -0.30
Chiefs 4.26 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 3.86 1.47 2.40
Highlanders 3.61 2.70 0.90
Reds 2.13 1.59 0.50
Rebels -5.58 -3.51 -2.10
Waratahs -9.16 -5.02 -4.10
Western Force -10.86 -13.05 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds May 14 40 – 19 7.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes May 14 48 – 64 -8.90 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Brumbies May 15 31 – 29 17.80 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Blues May 15 3 – 50 -5.60 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Chiefs May 15 19 – 20 -9.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 21 Hurricanes 18.90
2 Western Force vs. Highlanders May 21 Highlanders -8.00
3 Blues vs. Waratahs May 22 Blues 24.50
4 Chiefs vs. Brumbies May 22 Chiefs 6.90
5 Reds vs. Crusaders May 22 Crusaders -5.40

 

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