Posts tagged NRL (52)

March 6, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 9.58 6.98 2.60
Crusaders 6.90 9.03 -2.10
Sharks 4.76 4.57 0.20
Stormers 2.70 3.34 -0.60
Bulls 2.42 2.55 -0.10
Hurricanes 2.07 4.40 -2.30
Brumbies 1.02 -1.06 2.10
Blues 1.02 -3.02 4.00
Reds -0.30 0.46 -0.80
Highlanders -3.90 -3.41 -0.50
Waratahs -4.62 -4.10 -0.50
Cheetahs -6.32 -4.16 -2.20
Kings -9.37 -10.00 0.60
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.60 -10.64 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 01 34 – 15 -7.60 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 01 31 – 26 9.10 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Hurricanes Mar 01 18 – 12 0.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 45 – 3 15.70 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Force Mar 02 36 – 26 17.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 12 – 6 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 08 Crusaders -2.30
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 08 Reds -7.80
3 Highlanders vs. Cheetahs Mar 09 Highlanders 6.40
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 09 Brumbies 8.10
5 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -2.90
6 Kings vs. Sharks Mar 09 Sharks -11.60
7 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 10 Blues 2.60

 
 

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February 28, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.73 9.73 0.00
Bulldogs 7.33 7.33 0.00
Cowboys 7.05 7.05 0.00
Rabbitohs 5.23 5.23 -0.00
Sea Eagles 4.78 4.78 0.00
Raiders 2.03 2.03 0.00
Knights 0.44 0.44 0.00
Dragons -0.33 -0.33 -0.00
Broncos -1.55 -1.55 0.00
Sharks -1.78 -1.78 0.00
Titans -1.85 -1.85 0.00
Wests Tigers -3.71 -3.71 -0.00
Roosters -5.68 -5.68 0.00
Panthers -6.58 -6.58 -0.00
Eels -8.82 -8.82 0.00
Warriors -10.01 -10.01 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 07 Rabbitohs -6.40
2 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Mar 08 Sea Eagles -1.80
3 Eels vs. Warriors Mar 09 Eels 5.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 09 Bulldogs 4.80
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Mar 10 Raiders -4.10
6 Storm vs. Dragons Mar 10 Storm 14.60
7 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 10 Sharks 4.60
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 11 Knights 8.60

 

September 26, 2012

NRL Predictions, Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

Here are the team ratings prior to the Grand Final, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 8.55 -1.86 10.40
Storm 7.63 4.63 3.00
Cowboys 6.35 -1.32 7.70
Sea Eagles 4.66 9.83 -5.20
Rabbitohs 4.48 0.04 4.40
Raiders 1.12 -8.40 9.50
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.98 5.57 -6.50
Sharks -2.05 -7.97 5.90
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Sep 21 40 – 12 3.56 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 32 – 8 0.27 TRUE

 

Prediction for the Grand Final

Here is my prediction for the Grand Final.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Storm Sep 30 Bulldogs 5.40

 

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September 18, 2012

NRL Predictions, Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the Preliminary Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department
home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 6.65 -1.86 8.50
Sea Eagles 6.61 9.83 -3.20
Rabbitohs 6.38 0.04 6.30
Cowboys 6.35 -1.32 7.70
Storm 5.67 4.63 1.00
Raiders 1.12 -8.40 9.50
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.98 5.57 -6.50
Sharks -2.05 -7.97 5.90
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.11%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Sep 14 22 – 12 3.77 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Sep 15 38 – 16 7.44 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Sep 21 Storm 3.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 Bulldogs 0.30

 

September 13, 2012

NRL Predictions, Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Finals Week 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 6.85 -1.32 8.20
Bulldogs 6.65 -1.86 8.50
Sea Eagles 6.12 9.83 -3.70
Storm 5.67 4.63 1.00
Rabbitohs 5.22 0.04 5.20
Raiders 2.28 -8.40 10.70
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.98 5.57 -6.50
Sharks -2.05 -7.97 5.90
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.71%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 07 16 – 10 4.85 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 08 24 – 16 4.37 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 08 33 – 16 11.43 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 09 34 – 16 7.08 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Sep 14 Sea Eagles 3.80
2 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Sep 15 Rabbitohs 7.40

 

September 7, 2012

NRL Predictions, Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Finals Week 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 6.56 -1.86 8.40
Cowboys 6.40 -1.32 7.70
Sea Eagles 6.21 9.83 -3.60
Rabbitohs 5.51 0.04 5.50
Storm 5.38 4.63 0.80
Raiders 1.41 -8.40 9.80
Knights 0.01 0.77 -0.80
Dragons -0.37 4.36 -4.70
Broncos -0.53 5.57 -6.10
Sharks -1.17 -7.97 6.80
Titans -2.20 -11.80 9.60
Wests Tigers -2.74 4.52 -7.30
Roosters -5.43 0.25 -5.70
Panthers -6.45 -3.40 -3.00
Warriors -8.08 5.28 -13.40
Eels -8.25 -4.23 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 31 6 – 18 1.10 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 31 19 – 12 11.07 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Sep 01 16 – 24 -3.13 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Sep 01 6 – 26 -0.51 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Sep 01 42 – 10 13.54 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 02 22 – 36 -0.99 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Sep 02 22 – 42 -2.13 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Sep 02 8 – 29 -0.03 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 07 Bulldogs 4.90
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 08 Cowboys 11.40
3 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 08 Raiders 7.10
4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 09 Storm 4.40

 

August 30, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 26, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sea Eagles 5.82 9.83 -4.00
Cowboys 5.36 -1.32 6.70
Bulldogs 5.08 -1.86 6.90
Rabbitohs 4.46 0.04 4.40
Storm 3.82 4.63 -0.80
Knights 1.06 0.77 0.30
Raiders -0.02 -8.40 8.40
Sharks -0.13 -7.97 7.80
Broncos -0.21 5.57 -5.80
Wests Tigers -1.19 4.52 -5.70
Titans -1.81 -11.80 10.00
Dragons -2.04 4.36 -6.40
Roosters -3.95 0.25 -4.20
Eels -6.57 -4.23 -2.30
Warriors -6.65 5.28 -11.90
Panthers -6.77 -3.40 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 24 16 – 6 10.62 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 24 34 – 6 -6.05 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Titans Aug 25 36 – 22 -3.21 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 25 38 – 6 4.75 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 25 22 – 14 8.96 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 26 44 – 20 -2.51 FALSE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 26 38 – 6 12.39 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 27 20 – 18 9.68 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 31 Knights 1.10
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 31 Broncos 11.10
3 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Sep 01 Sea Eagles -3.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Sep 01 Storm -0.50
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Sep 01 Bulldogs 13.50
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 02 Cowboys -1.00
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Sep 02 Raiders -2.10
8 Eels vs. Dragons Sep 02 Dragons -0.00

 

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August 23, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 25, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 7.81 -1.86 9.70
Sea Eagles 5.87 9.83 -4.00
Cowboys 5.44 -1.32 6.80
Storm 4.44 4.63 -0.20
Rabbitohs 2.89 0.04 2.80
Knights 0.98 0.77 0.20
Wests Tigers 0.94 4.52 -3.60
Broncos -0.25 5.57 -5.80
Titans -0.43 -11.80 11.40
Sharks -0.75 -7.97 7.20
Raiders -2.75 -8.40 5.60
Dragons -4.22 4.36 -8.60
Warriors -4.47 5.28 -9.70
Eels -5.00 -4.23 -0.80
Roosters -6.08 0.25 -6.30
Panthers -8.15 -3.40 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.52%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 17 18 – 19 -0.04 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 17 23 – 22 13.35 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 18 24 – 20 8.56 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 18 20 – 7 -1.45 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Eels Aug 19 24 – 16 9.27 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 19 16 – 18 10.12 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 19 42 – 20 6.99 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Aug 20 22 – 32 -4.24 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 24 Sea Eagles 10.60
2 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 24 Bulldogs -6.10
3 Panthers vs. Titans Aug 25 Titans -3.20
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 25 Dragons 4.70
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 25 Cowboys 9.00
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 26 Wests Tigers -2.50
7 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 26 Rabbitohs 12.40
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 27 Storm 9.70

 

August 15, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 24, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 8.79 -1.86 10.70
Cowboys 4.98 -1.32 6.30
Sea Eagles 4.67 9.83 -5.20
Storm 4.36 4.63 -0.30
Rabbitohs 4.05 0.04 4.00
Knights 2.18 0.77 1.40
Wests Tigers -0.05 4.52 -4.60
Broncos -0.18 5.57 -5.70
Titans -0.33 -11.80 11.50
Sharks -1.90 -7.97 6.10
Raiders -2.38 -8.40 6.00
Warriors -3.50 5.28 -8.80
Dragons -3.76 4.36 -8.10
Eels -5.10 -4.23 -0.90
Roosters -6.44 0.25 -6.70
Panthers -9.12 -3.40 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.74%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 6 – 23 2.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 10 24 – 16 9.42 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 11 36 – 22 4.28 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 11 22 – 12 7.87 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 11 52 – 12 7.83 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 12 10 – 20 -0.76 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 12 22 – 14 14.51 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 13 26 – 4 6.03 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 17 Storm -0.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 17 Bulldogs 13.30
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 18 Raiders 8.60
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 18 Rabbitohs -1.50
5 Titans vs. Eels Aug 19 Titans 9.30
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 19 Warriors 10.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 19 Sea Eagles 7.00
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Aug 20 Cowboys -4.20

 

August 9, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 23, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulldogs 9.31 -1.86 11.20
Rabbitohs 5.61 0.04 5.60
Storm 4.47 4.63 -0.20
Sea Eagles 3.11 9.83 -6.70
Cowboys 2.40 -1.32 3.70
Knights 0.90 0.77 0.10
Wests Tigers -0.22 4.52 -4.70
Titans -0.44 -11.80 11.40
Sharks -0.63 -7.97 7.30
Broncos -0.70 5.57 -6.30
Warriors -0.93 5.28 -6.20
Raiders -3.12 -8.40 5.30
Dragons -3.59 4.36 -7.90
Roosters -5.66 0.25 -5.90
Eels -5.88 -4.23 -1.60
Panthers -8.38 -3.40 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.25%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 03 26 – 10 -0.16 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 04 46 – 6 13.04 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 04 10 – 26 -1.61 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Aug 04 6 – 8 4.90 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 05 4 – 45 12.81 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 05 28 – 12 -0.57 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 05 18 – 22 -1.09 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Aug 06 51 – 26 7.33 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 Rabbitohs 2.50
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 10 Storm 9.40
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 11 Eels 4.30
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 11 Wests Tigers 7.90
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 11 Cowboys 7.80
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 12 Raiders -0.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 12 Bulldogs 14.50
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 13 Knights 6.00

 

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