NRL Predictions, Round 26
Team Ratings for Round 26
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 26, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 5.82 | 9.83 | -4.00 |
| Cowboys | 5.36 | -1.32 | 6.70 |
| Bulldogs | 5.08 | -1.86 | 6.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 4.46 | 0.04 | 4.40 |
| Storm | 3.82 | 4.63 | -0.80 |
| Knights | 1.06 | 0.77 | 0.30 |
| Raiders | -0.02 | -8.40 | 8.40 |
| Sharks | -0.13 | -7.97 | 7.80 |
| Broncos | -0.21 | 5.57 | -5.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -1.19 | 4.52 | -5.70 |
| Titans | -1.81 | -11.80 | 10.00 |
| Dragons | -2.04 | 4.36 | -6.40 |
| Roosters | -3.95 | 0.25 | -4.20 |
| Eels | -6.57 | -4.23 | -2.30 |
| Warriors | -6.65 | 5.28 | -11.90 |
| Panthers | -6.77 | -3.40 | -3.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 184 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | Aug 24 | 16 – 6 | 10.62 | TRUE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Aug 24 | 34 – 6 | -6.05 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Titans | Aug 25 | 36 – 22 | -3.21 | FALSE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Aug 25 | 38 – 6 | 4.75 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Knights | Aug 25 | 22 – 14 | 8.96 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 26 | 44 – 20 | -2.51 | FALSE |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | Aug 26 | 38 – 6 | 12.39 | TRUE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Sharks | Aug 27 | 20 – 18 | 9.68 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 26
Here are the predictions for Round 26
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 31 | Knights | 1.10 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Aug 31 | Broncos | 11.10 |
| 3 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 01 | Sea Eagles | -3.10 |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Sep 01 | Storm | -0.50 |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Sep 01 | Bulldogs | 13.50 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Sep 02 | Cowboys | -1.00 |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Sep 02 | Raiders | -2.10 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Dragons | Sep 02 | Dragons | -0.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
If you’d just picked the home team then you’d have been right 103 times. By ‘home team’ that includes the team that took a game on the road on a few occasions.
So you are beating that option.
I guess the other obvious option is to pick the higher ranked team every week irrespective of form or venue.
I might try and work that out later with a tie breaker (if both teams were on the same points – like before week one) being the venue.
12 years ago