March 18, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 7.89 10.00 -2.10
Crusaders 7.86 10.42 -2.60
Hurricanes 5.27 2.89 2.40
Brumbies 5.03 2.20 2.80
Chiefs 4.09 2.23 1.90
Sharks 2.89 3.91 -1.00
Bulls 2.81 2.88 -0.10
Stormers 2.70 1.68 1.00
Blues -0.07 1.44 -1.50
Highlanders -0.91 -2.54 1.60
Lions -4.36 -3.39 -1.00
Force -5.73 -4.67 -1.10
Cheetahs -6.12 -5.55 -0.60
Rebels -6.64 -9.53 2.90
Reds -7.72 -4.98 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 13 30 – 23 9.80 TRUE
2 Force vs. Rebels Mar 13 17 – 21 6.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Lions Mar 14 34 – 6 15.10 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 14 26 – 19 -5.90 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 14 0 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 14 19 – 28 4.80 FALSE
7 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Mar 14 10 – 27 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 Hurricanes -2.20
2 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 20 Rebels 2.20
3 Crusaders vs. Cheetahs Mar 21 Crusaders 18.50
4 Bulls vs. Force Mar 21 Bulls 13.00
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs Mar 21 Sharks 3.30
6 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 Waratahs 6.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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