June 28, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 9.60 10.29 -0.70
Storm 8.57 4.41 4.20
Broncos 6.39 9.81 -3.40
Sharks 5.71 -1.06 6.80
Bulldogs 4.96 1.50 3.50
Raiders 2.90 -0.55 3.50
Eels 1.23 -4.62 5.90
Panthers -0.59 -3.06 2.50
Roosters -1.35 11.20 -12.60
Dragons -2.11 -0.10 -2.00
Sea Eagles -2.14 0.36 -2.50
Warriors -2.56 -7.47 4.90
Rabbitohs -3.23 -1.20 -2.00
Titans -3.37 -8.39 5.00
Wests Tigers -5.23 -4.06 -1.20
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 24 28 – 26 6.30 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 25 18 – 30 -12.00 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 25 19 – 18 14.10 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jun 25 40 – 14 -2.30 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Raiders Jun 26 22 – 30 -2.40 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 26 29 – 20 18.10 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 27 30 – 26 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 Bulldogs -3.30
2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 01 Broncos 0.80
3 Warriors vs. Titans Jul 02 Warriors 4.80
4 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 02 Panthers -1.60
5 Sharks vs. Eels Jul 02 Sharks 7.50
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 03 Raiders 23.00
7 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Cowboys -9.80
8 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 04 Sea Eagles 3.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Jade petersen

    I also got the broncos vs bulldogs game the only one wrong I had a feeling bulldogs would win it was a home game for them + broncos are not in form at the moment

    1 year ago

  • avatar
    noel minaka

    your is prediction is okay except for storms , I think they will still have the win against the Bronx.

    1 year ago

  • avatar
    noel minaka

    Your prediction is okay but I think the storms will still win the Bronx at home soil..

    1 year ago