NRL Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 9.60 | 10.29 | -0.70 |
| Storm | 8.57 | 4.41 | 4.20 |
| Broncos | 6.39 | 9.81 | -3.40 |
| Sharks | 5.71 | -1.06 | 6.80 |
| Bulldogs | 4.96 | 1.50 | 3.50 |
| Raiders | 2.90 | -0.55 | 3.50 |
| Eels | 1.23 | -4.62 | 5.90 |
| Panthers | -0.59 | -3.06 | 2.50 |
| Roosters | -1.35 | 11.20 | -12.60 |
| Dragons | -2.11 | -0.10 | -2.00 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.14 | 0.36 | -2.50 |
| Warriors | -2.56 | -7.47 | 4.90 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.23 | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| Titans | -3.37 | -8.39 | 5.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.23 | -4.06 | -1.20 |
| Knights | -17.13 | -5.41 | -11.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 24 | 28 – 26 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Dragons | Jun 25 | 18 – 30 | -12.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Jun 25 | 19 – 18 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Jun 25 | 40 – 14 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Raiders | Jun 26 | 22 – 30 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 26 | 29 – 20 | 18.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 27 | 30 – 26 | 16.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Bulldogs | Jun 30 | Bulldogs | -3.30 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Storm | Jul 01 | Broncos | 0.80 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Titans | Jul 02 | Warriors | 4.80 |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Jul 02 | Panthers | -1.60 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Eels | Jul 02 | Sharks | 7.50 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Knights | Jul 03 | Raiders | 23.00 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Jul 03 | Cowboys | -9.80 |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Dragons | Jul 04 | Sea Eagles | 3.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I also got the broncos vs bulldogs game the only one wrong I had a feeling bulldogs would win it was a home game for them + broncos are not in form at the moment
8 years ago
your is prediction is okay except for storms , I think they will still have the win against the Bronx.
8 years ago
Your prediction is okay but I think the storms will still win the Bronx at home soil..
8 years ago