October 18, 2011

Predictions for RWC 2011 Finals

By

Ratings at the Start of RWC 2011

Here are the team ratings at the start of RWC 2011.

Rating
New Zealand 30.92
Australia 22.97
South Africa 20.50
England 13.19
France 11.42
Wales 9.99
Ireland 8.65
Argentina 6.42
Scotland 4.50
Italy -2.78
Samoa -7.38
Canada -15.03
Tonga -15.11
Fiji -15.70
Japan -22.52
Georgia -25.35
USA -27.29
Romania -28.18
Russia -33.12
Namibia -38.21

 

Current Team Ratings

Here are the team ratings for the finalists as of October 17, 2011

Rating
New Zealand 30.88
Australia 21.57
Wales 14.84
France 10.38

 

There has been no change in the ratings for Australia and New Zealand after the semi-finals because that result was predicted very accurately. France’s rating has increased by half a point and Wales’ decreased by the same amount as a result of their match. Surprisingly France’s rating has dropped a point since the start of the tournament, yet they are in the final. That is mostly due to the 5 point loss to Tonga where the prediction was they should win by 25 points. Their rating also dropped as a result of the Japan game.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 New Zealand vs. Tonga Sep 09 41 – 10 51.03 TRUE
2 Argentina vs. England Sep 10 9 – 13 -6.77 TRUE
3 Fiji vs. Namibia Sep 10 49 – 25 22.51 TRUE
4 France vs. Japan Sep 10 47 – 21 33.94 TRUE
5 Scotland vs. Romania Sep 10 34 – 24 32.68 TRUE
6 Australia vs. Italy Sep 11 32 – 6 25.75 TRUE
7 Ireland vs. USA Sep 11 22 – 10 35.93 TRUE
8 South Africa vs. Wales Sep 11 17 – 16 10.51 TRUE
9 Samoa vs. Namibia Sep 14 49 – 12 30.95 TRUE
10 Scotland vs. Georgia Sep 14 15 – 6 28.04 TRUE
11 Tonga vs. Canada Sep 14 20 – 25 1.53 FALSE
12 Russia vs. USA Sep 15 6 – 13 -7.75 TRUE
13 New Zealand vs. Japan Sep 16 83 – 7 56.20 TRUE
14 Argentina vs. Romania Sep 17 43 – 8 33.00 TRUE
15 Australia vs. Ireland Sep 17 6 – 15 16.26 FALSE
16 South Africa vs. Fiji Sep 17 49 – 3 35.32 TRUE
17 England vs. Georgia Sep 18 41 – 10 36.79 TRUE
18 France vs. Canada Sep 18 46 – 19 25.29 TRUE
19 Wales vs. Samoa Sep 18 17 – 10 17.64 TRUE
20 Italy vs. Russia Sep 20 53 – 17 30.27 TRUE
21 Tonga vs. Japan Sep 21 31 – 18 9.44 TRUE
22 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 22 87 – 0 59.41 TRUE
23 Australia vs. USA Sep 23 67 – 5 46.40 TRUE
24 England vs. Romania Sep 24 67 – 3 39.03 TRUE
25 New Zealand vs. France Sep 24 37 – 17 24.98 TRUE
26 Argentina vs. Scotland Sep 25 13 – 12 5.63 TRUE
27 Fiji vs. Samoa Sep 25 7 – 27 -10.39 TRUE
28 Ireland vs. Russia Sep 25 62 – 12 42.28 TRUE
29 Wales vs. Namibia Sep 26 81 – 7 50.92 TRUE
30 Canada vs. Japan Sep 27 23 – 23 9.11 FALSE
31 Italy vs. USA Sep 27 27 – 10 24.34 TRUE
32 Georgia vs. Romania Sep 28 25 – 9 5.16 TRUE
33 South Africa vs. Samoa Sep 30 13 – 5 28.08 TRUE
34 Australia vs. Russia Oct 01 68 – 22 56.36 TRUE
35 England vs. Scotland Oct 01 16 – 12 12.96 TRUE
36 France vs. Tonga Oct 01 14 – 19 25.06 FALSE
37 Argentina vs. Georgia Oct 02 25 – 7 28.92 TRUE
38 Ireland vs. Italy Oct 02 36 – 6 12.30 TRUE
39 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 79 – 15 50.88 TRUE
40 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 02 66 – 0 28.95 TRUE
41 Ireland vs. Wales Oct 08 10 – 22 -3.92 TRUE
42 England vs. France Oct 08 12 – 19 4.87 FALSE
43 South Africa vs. Australia Oct 09 9 – 11 -0.20 TRUE
44 New Zealand vs. Argentina Oct 09 33 – 10 31.00 TRUE
45 Wales vs. France Oct 15 8 – 9 5.49 FALSE
46 New Zealand vs. Australia Oct 16 20 – 6 14.37 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Finals

Here are the predictions for the finals

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wales vs. Australia Oct 21 Australia -6.70
2 New Zealand vs. France Oct 23 New Zealand 25.50

 

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Martin Bitkow

    Hi David, firstly thank you for taking the time to post your expert opinion.

    Secondly, what do you calculate the probability of Australia winning by 12 or less points at?

    Regards

    Martin

    13 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      I estimate the probability to be 0.29. How does this match the odds currently on offer?

      13 years ago