October 16, 2023

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 20.88 16.32 4.60
Ireland 18.62 15.46 3.20
South Africa 18.36 16.35 2.00
France 14.82 12.48 2.30
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 6.62 4.22 2.40
Argentina 3.56 1.23 2.30
Wales 3.17 0.75 2.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.01 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ireland vs. New Zealand Oct 15 24 – 28 -1.90 TRUE
2 Wales vs. Argentina Oct 15 17 – 29 0.80 FALSE
3 France vs. South Africa Oct 16 28 – 29 4.30 FALSE
4 England vs. Fiji Oct 16 30 – 24 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. New Zealand Oct 21 New Zealand -17.30
2 England vs. South Africa Oct 21 South Africa -11.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Murray TALMAGE

    New Zealand and South Africa FINAL. Like NZ to win final, Springboks are going to be hard to beat though, like they were in the last RWC 2019.

    7 months ago