March 1, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Round 2

Team Ratings for Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Interestingly for 3 teams the ratings have not changed. That is because the Rebels had a bye, and for the Stormers versus Hurricanes, I got the margin correct (rounded to 2 decimal places). My predicted margin was also very close for the Brumbies versus Force game.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 10.29 10.46
Stormers 6.59 6.59
Reds 5.71 5.03
Waratahs 4.30 4.98
Bulls 3.94 4.16
Blues 3.04 2.87
Sharks 1.10 0.87
Hurricanes -1.90 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.01 -1.46
Chiefs -2.21 -1.17
Highlanders -4.65 -5.69
Force -4.89 -4.95
Brumbies -6.72 -6.66
Lions -10.27 -10.82
Rebels -15.64 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 20 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 20 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 20 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 20 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 20 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 20 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 20 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 20 Blues -0.70
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 20 Waratahs -15.40
3 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 Hurricanes -3.90
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 20 Crusaders -10.40
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 20 Reds 15.10
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 20 Bulls -1.40
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 20 Stormers 10.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Kane Bunce

    I don’t understand how you can have the defending champions rated so lowly. I fail to see the logic of that.

    6 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Pretty simple. The Reds have underperformed for years. They started 2011 with a very low rating and had some poor results throughout the year despite eventually winning.

      6 years ago

      • avatar
        Kane Bunce

        Well, I confess that I don’t really understand how your rating system works. It is effectively a foreign language to me given I know as little about it as a foreign language. I am just trying to get some more understanding of it.

        6 years ago