NRL Predictions, Week 1
I will be producing predictions for the NRL this year as well as for the Super 15.
Ratings at the Beginning of the 2012 NRL Season
Here are the team ratings at the start of the NRL season.
| Rating | |
|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 9.83 |
| Broncos | 5.57 |
| Warriors | 5.28 |
| Storm | 4.63 |
| Wests Tigers | 4.52 |
| Dragons | 4.36 |
| Knights | 0.77 |
| Roosters | 0.25 |
| Rabbitohs | 0.04 |
| Cowboys | -1.32 |
| Bulldogs | -1.86 |
| Panthers | -3.40 |
| Eels | -4.23 |
| Sharks | -7.97 |
| Raiders | -8.40 |
| Titans | -11.80 |
Predictions for Round 1
I got caught out with the game starting tonight. I thought I had another day before producing my predictions. Anyway, here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Dragons | Mar 01 | Knights | 0.90 |
| 2 | Eels vs. Broncos | Mar 02 | Broncos | -5.30 |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Storm | Mar 03 | Storm | -8.50 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Mar 03 | Panthers | 3.00 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Mar 03 | Cowboys | 15.00 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 04 | Sea Eagles | -0.00 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Mar 04 | Wests Tigers | 17.00 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Mar 05 | Rabbitohs | 4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Interesting, where are you initial team ratings from, and what is your criteria for picking a winner
12 years ago
I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page.
12 years ago
Yes, it would be great if you could link to an explanation of the method you are using to make these predictions.
12 years ago