NRL Predictions, Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 8.03 | 4.63 | 3.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.57 | 9.83 | -2.30 |
| Broncos | 6.55 | 5.57 | 1.00 |
| Dragons | 4.90 | 4.36 | 0.50 |
| Warriors | 3.85 | 5.28 | -1.40 |
| Knights | 1.86 | 0.77 | 1.10 |
| Bulldogs | 1.31 | -1.86 | 3.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 0.00 | 0.04 | -0.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.01 | 4.52 | -4.50 |
| Panthers | -0.96 | -3.40 | 2.40 |
| Cowboys | -1.66 | -1.32 | -0.30 |
| Roosters | -3.87 | 0.25 | -4.10 |
| Raiders | -4.38 | -8.40 | 4.00 |
| Sharks | -4.87 | -7.97 | 3.10 |
| Eels | -10.58 | -4.23 | -6.30 |
| Titans | -11.49 | -11.80 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Panthers | Mar 23 | 6 – 39 | 0.19 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | Mar 23 | 12 – 20 | -0.91 | TRUE |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Titans | Mar 24 | 26 – 6 | 19.81 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 24 | 17 – 6 | 0.08 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Mar 24 | 14 – 20 | 10.32 | FALSE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Roosters | Mar 25 | 44 – 4 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Mar 25 | 6 – 20 | 7.37 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Mar 26 | 16 – 30 | 13.22 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Knights | Mar 30 | Storm | 10.70 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Mar 30 | Broncos | 6.10 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Mar 31 | Panthers | 8.40 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 31 | Sea Eagles | -13.70 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Mar 31 | Warriors | -3.20 |
| 6 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | Apr 01 | Bulldogs | -8.30 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 01 | Wests Tigers | 4.50 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Apr 02 | Raiders | 1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »