March 30, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 6

By

Team Ratings for Week 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.89 4.16 4.70
Crusaders 6.90 10.46 -3.60
Stormers 5.71 6.59 -0.90
Waratahs 2.58 4.98 -2.40
Blues 2.09 2.87 -0.80
Sharks 1.65 0.87 0.80
Chiefs 0.23 -1.17 1.40
Hurricanes 0.21 -1.90 2.10
Reds -0.62 5.03 -5.70
Highlanders -2.94 -5.69 2.70
Cheetahs -3.46 -1.46 -2.00
Force -5.61 -4.95 -0.70
Brumbies -5.90 -6.66 0.80
Lions -9.26 -10.82 1.60
Rebels -13.78 -15.64 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 23 25 – 26 7.80 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Force Mar 23 30 – 29 -4.60 FALSE
3 Waratahs vs. Sharks Mar 24 34 – 30 5.70 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Cheetahs Mar 24 28 – 21 16.40 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 24 33 – 26 0.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Reds Mar 24 61 – 8 6.60 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Stormers Mar 24 19 – 24 -11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Mar 30 Highlanders 15.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 31 Hurricanes 8.20
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Mar 31 Chiefs 2.10
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 31 Sharks -3.10
5 Force vs. Reds Mar 31 Reds -0.50
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Mar 31 Crusaders -11.70
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Mar 31 Stormers 1.30

 

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Mitch

    Hi David I really find your Stats on the Super Rugby interesting and in many cases quite correct. My only criticism is that you post them too late. Today 5th April case in point. There is a game on in 2 hours and yet you still have not posted your stats for Week 7 ? Please try posts these earlier or let me know the reason for the lateness of the posting. Thanks Mitch

    12 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      I usually try to post on a Friday. I got caught out this week because I hadn’t realised there was a game tonight.

      Given that there is interest, I will try and put the predictions up a bit earlier.

      12 years ago

      • avatar
        Mitch

        Thank you David

        12 years ago

        • avatar
          Mitch

          Thursday Afternoon would be good for me if that suits you as the first games are early Friday morning South African Time. Thanks

          12 years ago