July 4, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 20

By

Team Ratings for Week 20

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.42 10.46 -1.00
Stormers 5.80 6.59 -0.80
Bulls 4.85 4.16 0.70
Hurricanes 3.57 -1.90 5.50
Chiefs 3.35 -1.17 4.50
Sharks 2.65 0.87 1.80
Reds 1.14 5.03 -3.90
Brumbies 0.57 -6.66 7.20
Waratahs -2.01 4.98 -7.00
Cheetahs -3.24 -1.46 -1.80
Highlanders -3.41 -5.69 2.30
Blues -5.97 2.87 -8.80
Lions -8.39 -10.82 2.40
Force -8.76 -4.95 -3.80
Rebels -12.88 -15.64 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 29 21 – 27 -1.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Jun 29 17 – 31 -8.70 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 22 – 23 12.50 FALSE
4 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 30 17 – 28 -3.70 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 30 27 – 17 20.30 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 30 40 – 24 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 06 Crusaders -1.60
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Reds 9.10
3 Blues vs. Force Jul 07 Blues 7.30
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Waratahs 1.90
5 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 07 Stormers -4.50
6 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 07 Lions 9.00
7 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 07 Sharks 2.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Warwick Reeves

    Hi David

    I have really enjoyed reading your super rugby predictions over the course of the competition.

    Your predictions, which I know are based soley on the numbers, have been very accurate. I find this particularly interesting because certain key factors, such as team’s current form and injuries, have not been included in the calculations.

    I can work out how you calculate each team’s current rating but would like to ask how you calculate the team’s rating at the beginning of the competition?

    It would be very interesting to know how far back you look and what team data you use to calculate the initial ratings.

    I have never done any form of regression testing, but after reading this column, I think I may give it a go myself but I am a bit unsure how to start.

    Thanks for the entertainment.

    Warwick

    12 years ago