July 11, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 21

Team Ratings for Week 21

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.85 10.46 -0.60
Stormers 5.99 6.59 -0.60
Sharks 4.23 0.87 3.40
Hurricanes 3.57 -1.90 5.50
Bulls 3.28 4.16 -0.90
Chiefs 2.91 -1.17 4.10
Brumbies 1.05 -6.66 7.70
Reds 0.90 5.03 -4.10
Waratahs -2.49 4.98 -7.50
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.44 -1.46 -2.00
Blues -4.71 2.87 -7.60
Lions -8.71 -10.82 2.10
Force -10.01 -4.95 -5.10
Rebels -12.56 -15.64 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 06 21 – 28 -1.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Jul 06 19 – 13 9.10 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 06 32 – 10 2.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Force Jul 07 32 – 9 7.30 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 15 – 19 1.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 07 6 – 13 -4.50 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 07 37 – 32 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 13 Hurricanes 5.20
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Jul 14 Brumbies 10.30
3 Crusaders vs. Force Jul 14 Crusaders 24.40
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 14 Reds 7.90
5 Stormers vs. Rebels Jul 14 Stormers 23.10
6 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 Sharks 12.20
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 14 Bulls 16.50

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »