July 31, 2013

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.78 9.03 0.80
Sharks 4.43 4.57 -0.10
Chiefs 4.02 6.98 -3.00
Stormers 3.99 3.34 0.70
Bulls 3.94 2.55 1.40
Brumbies 3.07 -1.06 4.10
Waratahs 1.15 -4.10 5.30
Reds -0.70 0.46 -1.20
Cheetahs -1.16 -4.16 3.00
Hurricanes -2.28 4.40 -6.70
Blues -3.22 -3.02 -0.20
Highlanders -5.85 -3.41 -2.40
Force -7.69 -9.73 2.00
Rebels -8.66 -10.64 2.00
Kings -15.61 -10.00 -5.60


Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 26 20 – 19 -4.10 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Brumbies Jul 27 23 – 26 6.40 FALSE


Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Aug 03 Chiefs 5.00



David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »


  • avatar
    Gary Coope

    Any chance of giving these posts their own topic/tag if they’re continued? Would make it a lot easier to find them than rather just filed under ‘General’.

    Also interesting to note The Chiefs rating has declined from 6.98 to 4.02 in spite of being in the final as the favourite.

    You had the right score for the Chiefs/Crusaders semi-final…just the wrong way round :( …(I’m a Crusaders supporter).

    4 years ago

    • avatar
      Gary Coope

      Whoops..misread the prediction for last week….ignore than last comment.

      4 years ago

  • avatar
    Julie Middleton

    Hi Gary, good idea. Will have a chat to the other admins.

    4 years ago