ITM Cup Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 19.69 | 18.09 | 1.60 |
| Tasman | 12.10 | 5.78 | 6.30 |
| Wellington | 8.20 | 10.16 | -2.00 |
| Counties Manukau | 2.19 | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 1.75 | 2.75 | -1.00 |
| Waikato | 0.77 | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| Auckland | 0.31 | 4.92 | -4.60 |
| Otago | -1.29 | -1.45 | 0.20 |
| Taranaki | -3.68 | -3.89 | 0.20 |
| Southland | -5.25 | -5.85 | 0.60 |
| Bay of Plenty | -8.38 | -5.47 | -2.90 |
| Northland | -9.09 | -8.22 | -0.90 |
| Manawatu | -9.45 | -10.32 | 0.90 |
| North Harbour | -9.93 | -9.77 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waikato vs. Taranaki | Aug 27 | 17 – 46 | 8.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Canterbury vs. Northland | Aug 28 | 48 – 3 | 32.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Manawatu | Aug 29 | 21 – 27 | 21.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 30 | 21 – 27 | 4.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Southland vs. Otago | Aug 30 | 22 – 33 | 0.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Waikato | Aug 30 | 16 – 22 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 31 | 41 – 3 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Aug 31 | 16 – 16 | -1.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 03 | Manawatu | 2.90 |
| 2 | Otago vs. Canterbury | Sep 04 | Canterbury | -17.00 |
| 3 | Tasman vs. Waikato | Sep 05 | Tasman | 15.30 |
| 4 | Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 05 | Hawke’s Bay | -6.80 |
| 5 | Auckland vs. Wellington | Sep 06 | Wellington | -3.90 |
| 6 | Taranaki vs. Southland | Sep 06 | Taranaki | 5.60 |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 07 | Counties Manukau | -7.60 |
| 8 | Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour | Sep 07 | Bay of Plenty | 5.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »