September 9, 2014

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.17 3.43 2.70
Lions 2.29 0.07 2.20
Sharks 2.14 5.09 -2.90
Cheetahs -1.27 0.33 -1.60
Blue Bulls -2.81 -0.74 -2.10
Pumas -5.58 -10.00 4.40
Griquas -7.37 -7.49 0.10
Kings -12.89 -10.00 -2.90


Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Kings Sep 05 49 – 14 22.50 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 06 17 – 31 12.40 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Sep 06 18 – 21 16.90 FALSE
4 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 06 36 – 26 -1.50 FALSE


Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Blue Bulls Sep 12 Blue Bulls -5.10
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Sep 13 Griquas 3.20
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 13 Cheetahs 1.60
4 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 13 Lions 1.10



David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »