September 9, 2014

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60
Tasman 12.10 5.78 6.30
Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00
Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 1.75 2.75 -1.00
Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00
Auckland 0.31 4.92 -4.60
Otago -1.29 -1.45 0.20
Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20
Bay of Plenty -4.12 -5.47 1.30
Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60
Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90
Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90
North Harbour -14.19 -9.77 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 03 29 – 27 2.90 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 04 16 – 23 -17.00 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 05 23 – 16 15.30 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 05 23 – 21 -6.80 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 06 31 – 30 -3.90 FALSE
6 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 06 41 – 19 5.60 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Sep 07 26 – 10 -7.60 FALSE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Sep 07 21 – 14 5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 Otago 11.80
2 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 11 Tasman 19.80
3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 12 Manawatu -0.70
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 12 Canterbury 15.50
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 13 Auckland -0.40
6 Southland vs. Northland Sep 13 Southland 7.80
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Sep 14 Waikato 2.60
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 14 Hawke’s Bay 7.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »