October 1, 2014

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.92 3.43 3.50
Lions 4.30 0.07 4.20
Sharks 3.44 5.09 -1.60
Cheetahs -1.79 0.33 -2.10
Blue Bulls -1.98 -0.74 -1.20
Pumas -6.17 -10.00 3.80
Griquas -9.54 -7.49 -2.00
Kings -14.49 -10.00 -4.50


Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Sep 26 23 – 31 7.00 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 27 8 – 46 -5.10 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 26 23 – 37 -7.20 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 27 53 – 24 22.00 TRUE


Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Kings Oct 04 Griquas 10.00
2 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 04 Pumas 0.80
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Oct 04 Western Province -3.70
4 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 04 Sharks 4.10



David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »


  • avatar
    Willis du Plessis

    Dear David,

    Will it be possible to get some stats for the Rugby sevens starting this weekend ? When we play superbru your stats help us to take away the emotion and the support for our team and focus on reality.



    3 years ago