AFL Predictions for Week 22
Team Ratings for Week 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | 27.23 | 6.56 | 20.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 23.72 | 26.75 | -3.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.37 | 22.83 | -1.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 20.83 | 26.20 | -5.40 |
| Sydney Swans | 17.88 | 0.56 | 17.30 |
| Adelaide Crows | 13.86 | 15.32 | -1.50 |
| Collingwood | 9.42 | 11.76 | -2.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | 6.34 | 1.64 | 4.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 5.95 | 26.06 | -20.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | 2.81 | -7.63 | 10.40 |
| GWS Giants | 1.48 | 9.54 | -8.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -4.38 | 10.24 | -14.60 |
| Carlton Blues | -5.71 | -4.77 | -0.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -7.92 | -14.65 | 6.70 |
| North Melbourne | -15.57 | -21.71 | 6.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -30.29 | -39.36 | 9.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -36.62 | -27.89 | -8.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -38.39 | -29.44 | -9.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 171 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood | Jul 23 | 74 – 108 | 24.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 24 | 97 – 117 | -3.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 24 | 112 – 42 | 55.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 25 | 110 – 97 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 25 | 132 – 39 | 51.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 25 | 88 – 139 | 2.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 25 | 105 – 48 | 42.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 26 | 126 – 67 | 36.20 | TRUE |
| 9 | North Melbourne vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 26 | 62 – 93 | -16.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 22
Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 30 | Geelong Cats | -3.30 |
| 2 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 31 | Fremantle Dockers | 32.30 |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 01 | Sydney Swans | -4.10 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne | Aug 01 | Hawthorn Hawks | 36.90 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. GWS Giants | Aug 01 | Port Adelaide Power | 1.60 |
| 6 | Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 01 | Brisbane Lions | -15.50 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 02 | Richmond Tigers | 2.90 |
| 8 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 02 | Gold Coast Suns | 0.30 |
| 9 | Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 02 | Adelaide Crows | -39.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »