Super 15 Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 8.49 | 10.42 | -1.90 |
| Waratahs | 8.16 | 10.00 | -1.80 |
| Hurricanes | 4.10 | 2.89 | 1.20 |
| Brumbies | 4.07 | 2.20 | 1.90 |
| Sharks | 3.21 | 3.91 | -0.70 |
| Stormers | 3.03 | 1.68 | 1.30 |
| Chiefs | 2.65 | 2.23 | 0.40 |
| Bulls | 1.41 | 2.88 | -1.50 |
| Blues | 0.56 | 1.44 | -0.90 |
| Highlanders | -2.43 | -2.54 | 0.10 |
| Force | -3.75 | -4.67 | 0.90 |
| Cheetahs | -4.42 | -5.55 | 1.10 |
| Lions | -4.56 | -3.39 | -1.20 |
| Reds | -6.00 | -4.98 | -1.00 |
| Rebels | -7.52 | -9.53 | 2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | Feb 20 | 19 – 17 | 3.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | Feb 20 | 28 – 38 | -12.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Hurricanes | Feb 20 | 13 – 17 | 2.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | Feb 21 | 20 – 26 | -7.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Force | Feb 21 | 18 – 6 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Blues | Feb 21 | 27 – 16 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Lions | Feb 21 | 29 – 12 | 10.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Reds | Feb 27 | Highlanders | 8.10 |
| 2 | Force vs. Hurricanes | Feb 27 | Hurricanes | -3.40 |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Blues | Feb 27 | Blues | -0.50 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Feb 28 | Crusaders | -1.80 |
| 5 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Feb 28 | Brumbies | -7.60 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Feb 28 | Bulls | 2.20 |
| 7 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 28 | Stormers | -3.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Week 1 reminded me a bit of the Hitchhikers’ Guide: “in the case of major discrepancy, it is reality that is at fault”
9 years ago
It was the most wildly unpredictable set of results since I have been trying to predict Super Rugby, that is since 2012. Just for one thing, I don’t believe I have previously seen 6 out of 7 away team wins. The one home team win was extreme as well, 47-3.
9 years ago