ITM Cup Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 12.79 | 12.86 | -0.10 |
| Canterbury | 11.10 | 10.90 | 0.20 |
| Counties Manukau | 6.75 | 7.86 | -1.10 |
| Taranaki | 5.78 | 7.70 | -1.90 |
| Auckland | 4.50 | 5.14 | -0.60 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 1.41 | -0.57 | 2.00 |
| Manawatu | -0.41 | -1.52 | 1.10 |
| Wellington | -2.70 | -4.62 | 1.90 |
| Otago | -5.04 | -4.84 | -0.20 |
| Southland | -5.37 | -6.01 | 0.60 |
| Northland | -5.61 | -3.64 | -2.00 |
| Waikato | -6.88 | -6.96 | 0.10 |
| Bay of Plenty | -9.39 | -9.77 | 0.40 |
| North Harbour | -10.92 | -10.54 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland vs. Auckland | Aug 13 | 23 – 23 | -7.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Waikato vs. Tasman | Aug 14 | 20 – 35 | -15.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour | Aug 14 | 20 – 11 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Taranaki vs. Wellington | Aug 15 | 14 – 19 | 16.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Otago vs. Canterbury | Aug 15 | 24 – 38 | -11.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu | Aug 16 | 36 – 35 | 13.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Aug 16 | 39 – 10 | 7.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Wellington | Aug 20 | Wellington | -4.20 |
| 2 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 21 | Tasman | 26.20 |
| 3 | Manawatu vs. Waikato | Aug 22 | Manawatu | 10.50 |
| 4 | Northland vs. Southland | Aug 22 | Northland | 3.80 |
| 5 | Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 22 | Hawke’s Bay | -2.40 |
| 6 | Auckland vs. Taranaki | Aug 23 | Auckland | 2.70 |
| 7 | Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 23 | Canterbury | 8.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Any chance of getting predictions for the Heartland Championship games?
9 years ago
Sorry. Too much work to get the data sorted out for that. I need to concentrate on sorting out the data for the RWC. Anybody able to give me details of all games played against any other teams in the RWC by Georgia, Uruguay, Romania, …?
9 years ago
You means pool play?
If so,
http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/pools
9 years ago
No, I mean all international games played between last world cup and this. For the top teams there is , but for the lesser teams it is a lot harder. For last World Cup I had data on nearly 1100 games. To capture the data I really need to be able to web scrape or at least grab a substantial table of game info. For Uruguay because they weren’t in the 2011 RWC, I need data on their games prior to 2011. I also need to decide on home ground advantage. So when Uruguay lost to Argentina 14-30 in Tucuman on October 17, 1998, was that in Argentina or Uruguay? I had to look that up to check that it was in Argentina.
9 years ago
You could try this guy
http://www.lassen.co.nz/pickandgo.php
with a quid pro quo offer.
9 years ago
Try
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings
It is a bit clunky but the information seems to be there.
9 years ago
I have tried that site and it would take some serious webscraping to get what I want. It returns all sorts of games, under 20, sevens etc and on separate pages. The results aren’t in tables either it seems.
On a chance I wrote to Uruguay rugby and their media person directed me to a brilliant site with really good enquiry formats:
. I think I can get information there on all the minor teams.
9 years ago
otago is the best by a long way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9 years ago