October 4, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.64 12.85 2.80
Auckland 8.51 11.34 -2.80
Taranaki 7.18 8.25 -1.10
Tasman 4.78 8.71 -3.90
Wellington 4.43 4.32 0.10
Counties Manukau 4.21 2.45 1.80
Otago 0.09 0.54 -0.40
Waikato -2.94 -4.31 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.50 1.85 -5.30
North Harbour -4.83 -8.15 3.30
Bay of Plenty -5.24 -5.54 0.30
Manawatu -5.45 -6.71 1.30
Northland -11.60 -19.37 7.80
Southland -14.77 -9.71 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 28 23 – 29 -13.00 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 15 – 10 4.50 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 30 60 – 21 19.70 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 01 44 – 34 3.20 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 01 21 – 30 4.50 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 01 54 – 17 7.00 TRUE
7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 02 34 – 39 -5.00 TRUE
8 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 48 – 27 -9.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 05 Wellington -5.90
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 06 Auckland 7.70
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 07 Canterbury 24.50
4 Southland vs. Northland Oct 08 Southland 0.80
5 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 08 Counties Manukau -0.10
6 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Waikato 4.60
7 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 09 Wellington 1.30
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 09 Bay of Plenty 4.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Mike Hanley

    There are some interesting match-ups this week. Southland v Northland is the trickiest, I think. Northland has been the biggest jmprover in these ratings, and had its first win on the weekend.
    Otago v Counties is also problematic.

    8 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Interesting week. Two upsets to start, two games where my predicted margins were less than one point. Wellington v Taranaki could also go either way I think, particularly after Wellington’s loss earlier in the week. Note that my predictions don’t take account of that result, being based only on previous weeks. Out of interest I just ran some predictions with Wednesday’s result included which indicated Taranaki by 1.26.

      8 years ago

  • avatar
    Gordon Bruce

    Im intrigued to see the variance for the Harbour Tasman match tonight. While the stats have favoured home teams mostly i feel this game will be close Tasman is Harbours hoodoo team with 2 wins from 7 matches. Tasman have momentum with their big win over Auckland. How much did Harbours loss to Canterbury take out of them?
    Tasman by -3.5

    8 years ago