December 18, 2016

Incriminating Claus-marks on her back

I was reminded by One News last night that I’d missed the annual ritual of the ACC Christmas Sermon.

ACC is supposed to be in the business of paying for accidents  and would prefer there to be fewer to pay for.  Every year, they issue warnings about Christmas risks, quoting large numbers of accidents and consequent medical costs. Often, the resulting stories omit the inconvenient fact that there are many fewer accidents over Christmas than at other times.  What actually happens at Christmas is a relatively small number of serious injuries, but often (as in the song) of distinctive  types, and often fairly easily preventable.

This year, the Manawatu Standard talks about specific Christmas risks, and mostly quotes numbers for those risks. They also quote local medics, who talk about types of risk rather than imply a high absolute level.

The Stuff Life & Style story fails at numbers. It leads with the total medical costs and number of injuries, not compared to a typical day and so giving a misleading impression.  It also has the regional-total comparisons that are a thing of the past for serious topics

Auckland had the highest rate of accidents anywhere in the country with 2866 claims over the three days, Christchurch had 945, Tauranga 469, Hamilton 451 and Wellington 399.

Auckland, of course, has more people — even at this time of year. Accounting for population, that’s a notably high rate for  Hamilton and Tauranga and a notably low rate for Wellington. Maybe Tauranga’s effective population is up because of tourists?

One News has a cost total, but $200,000,  singling out specifically Christmas-attributable injuries. In some ways that’s a problem in the other direction, since it misses out a lot of the ‘ordinary household tasks while stressed, tired, and/or drunk’ component. But they do give some good examples and advice.

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »

Comments

  • avatar
    steve curtis

    often the ‘cost’ fails to mention its for medical treatment, as GPs mostly bill ACC for treatment rather as part of their funding from the DHB.

    7 years ago

    • avatar
      Thomas Lumley

      I think the cost is all ACC costs — so the majority is medical treatment, but a substantial minority is compensation for people temporarily unable to work

      7 years ago