NRL Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 9.62 | 9.94 | -0.30 |
| Storm | 8.46 | 8.49 | -0.00 |
| Cowboys | 7.22 | 6.90 | 0.30 |
| Broncos | 5.39 | 4.36 | 1.00 |
| Sharks | 4.82 | 5.84 | -1.00 |
| Panthers | 2.92 | 6.08 | -3.20 |
| Roosters | 0.21 | -1.17 | 1.40 |
| Eels | -0.06 | -0.81 | 0.70 |
| Bulldogs | -1.31 | -1.34 | 0.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.23 | -3.89 | 1.70 |
| Titans | -2.36 | -0.98 | -1.40 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.48 | -1.82 | -1.70 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.73 | -2.98 | -0.80 |
| Dragons | -4.58 | -7.74 | 3.20 |
| Warriors | -6.89 | -6.02 | -0.90 |
| Knights | -16.07 | -16.94 | 0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 37.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Broncos | Mar 02 | 18 – 26 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Storm | Mar 03 | 6 – 12 | -6.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 03 | 18 – 34 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Mar 04 | 42 – 10 | -10.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Mar 04 | 20 – 16 | 0.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Titans vs. Roosters | Mar 04 | 18 – 32 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Knights | Mar 05 | 26 – 22 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Mar 05 | 12 – 20 | 1.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Bulldogs | Mar 09 | Roosters | 5.00 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Storm | Mar 10 | Storm | -11.30 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 10 | Broncos | 1.70 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Titans | Mar 11 | Titans | -10.20 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 11 | Sea Eagles | 3.30 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Mar 11 | Raiders | 8.30 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Mar 12 | Panthers | -1.70 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Eels | Mar 12 | Eels | -1.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »