March 7, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.67 13.22 4.40
Chiefs 10.59 9.75 0.80
Crusaders 8.84 8.75 0.10
Highlanders 8.06 9.17 -1.10
Lions 7.90 7.64 0.30
Waratahs 4.27 5.81 -1.50
Brumbies 3.33 3.83 -0.50
Stormers 1.81 1.51 0.30
Blues 0.90 -1.07 2.00
Sharks 0.69 0.42 0.30
Bulls -0.76 0.29 -1.00
Jaguares -4.02 -4.36 0.30
Cheetahs -6.31 -7.36 1.10
Force -8.54 -9.45 0.90
Reds -9.91 -10.28 0.40
Rebels -12.37 -8.17 -4.20
Kings -18.14 -19.02 0.90
Sunwolves -21.13 -17.76 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Force vs. Reds Mar 02 26 – 19 4.60 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 03 41 – 26 12.90 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 04 71 – 6 29.80 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 04 27 – 30 3.50 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 04 22 – 27 8.20 FALSE
6 Sunwolves vs. Kings Mar 04 23 – 37 3.10 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Waratahs Mar 04 55 – 36 6.10 TRUE
8 Stormers vs. Jaguares Mar 04 32 – 25 10.20 TRUE
9 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 04 34 – 28 -3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 10 Hurricanes -3.60
2 Brumbies vs. Force Mar 10 Brumbies 15.40
3 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Sharks 0.40
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 11 Highlanders -3.70
5 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 11 Crusaders -14.70
6 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 11 Cheetahs 18.80
7 Kings vs. Stormers Mar 11 Stormers -16.50
8 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 11 Lions -7.90

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Corne Botha

    Hi , at the beginning of the tournament is very hard too predict the games . The Nrl is the same , allot of upsets happened in first round , like always .

    8 months ago

    • avatar

      True. The NRL is actually hard to predict at any time, there seem to often be large reversals of form. I have always had suspicions about how clean a competition it is.

      8 months ago

      • avatar
        Thomas Hiddlestone

        Are you refering to match fixing?

        8 months ago

        • avatar

          Yes. I mentioned the difficulty of predicting the NRL compared to Super Rugby. It might be due to a very even competition. However there are other matters to consider.

          There has been at least one prosecution for spot fixing (Ryan Tandy). You have the association of Kieran Foran with Eddie Hayson. Gambling is how players get sucked into fixing and I think gambling is a concern not just in the NRL but in AFL as well. I think it is pretty easy to allow an opposing team to score in the NRL. Just be a little late releasing the tackled player and the resulting penalty puts huge pressure on the defending team.

          8 months ago

    • avatar
      Corne Botha

      I see you said the same pred as mine in Jaguars vs Lions , but don’t write Jaguars off ,it is in Argentina , and they might upset the Lions , prevent them a win , look how they come back against the Stormers in second half .

      That game is like 50/50.

      8 months ago

  • avatar
    Corne Botha

    Hi David, how is your Nrl predictions going for round 3 , i take a risk on Knights vs Titans game , i predicted Titans win , this was difficult game , it was 50/50 , i was wrong as usually , i play it on Superbr , allot of the games is killing me , i don’t know how too see these upsets.

    7 months ago

  • avatar
    Corne Botha

    Hi David, how is your Nrl predictions going for round 3 , i take a risk on Knights vs Titans game , i predicted Titans win , this was difficult game , it was 50/50 , i was wrong as usually , i play it on Superbr , allot of the games is killing me , i don’t know how too see these upsets.

    7 months ago

    • avatar

      My NRL predictions are not too good at all, under 50%. Last year they started at around 75% declining to 65% at the end of the year. My Super Rugby predictions started at less than 50% last year then recovered to 73% at the end.

      Looking at this week’s results, Broncos v Cowboys was a golden point game which could easily have gone the other way. Two of the other games I predicted wrongly were ones were I had a very high probability of the result I predicted (Knights v Titans, Raiders v Sharks). Sharks and Panthers (especially the Panthers) were coming off losses the previous week which dropped their ratings. Wests Tigers on the other hand had won against the prediction. Bottom line: sporting outcomes are random and hard to predict.

      7 months ago

  • avatar
    Corne Botha

    I play superbru , i don’t get it how do people get on first place on global leaderboard , by predicting most of the matches correct and winning margin , you don’t want too know where i am sitting . i think most of ti can be luck .

    7 months ago