NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 7.79 | 8.49 | -0.70 |
| Cowboys | 6.37 | 6.90 | -0.50 |
| Broncos | 5.02 | 4.36 | 0.70 |
| Sharks | 3.29 | 5.84 | -2.60 |
| Panthers | 2.96 | 6.08 | -3.10 |
| Raiders | 1.82 | 9.94 | -8.10 |
| Roosters | 1.68 | -1.17 | 2.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.45 | -2.98 | 3.40 |
| Dragons | -0.21 | -7.74 | 7.50 |
| Eels | -0.58 | -0.81 | 0.20 |
| Titans | -1.59 | -0.98 | -0.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -1.76 | -1.82 | 0.10 |
| Warriors | -2.34 | -6.02 | 3.70 |
| Bulldogs | -5.80 | -1.34 | -4.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -6.61 | -3.89 | -2.70 |
| Knights | -12.54 | -16.94 | 4.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Jul 20 | 42 – 12 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Knights | Jul 21 | 28 – 4 | 16.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 21 | 26 – 12 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Titans | Jul 22 | 24 – 16 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Raiders vs. Storm | Jul 22 | 14 – 20 | -1.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | Jul 22 | 24 – 12 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 23 | 52 – 22 | -2.00 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Jul 23 | 16 – 17 | -2.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Jul 23 | Sharks | -1.60 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Dragons | Jul 23 | Dragons | -8.80 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Jul 23 | Raiders | -0.10 |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Jul 23 | Cowboys | -1.20 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 23 | Storm | 10.80 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Jul 23 | Panthers | 12.30 |
| 7 | Eels vs. Broncos | Jul 23 | Broncos | -2.10 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 23 | Titans | 8.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »