February 4, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.42 17.10 -0.70
Jaguares 8.39 7.23 1.20
Hurricanes 6.84 8.79 -2.00
Chiefs 6.50 5.91 0.60
Highlanders 4.53 4.53 0.00
Brumbies 1.34 2.01 -0.70
Stormers 1.24 -0.71 1.90
Bulls 0.77 1.28 -0.50
Sharks -0.36 -0.87 0.50
Blues -0.63 -0.04 -0.60
Lions -0.77 0.39 -1.20
Waratahs -1.80 -2.48 0.70
Reds -5.19 -5.86 0.70
Rebels -8.79 -7.84 -0.90
Sunwolves -17.51 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jan 31 29 – 37 -1.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jan 31 27 – 24 12.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 31 23 – 15 2.40 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Feb 01 36 – 27 -4.60 FALSE
5 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Feb 01 43 – 25 25.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 01 27 – 0 -3.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 01 38 – 8 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Feb 07 Highlanders 10.90
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 07 Brumbies 14.60
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 08 Crusaders -5.40
4 Waratahs vs. Blues Feb 08 Waratahs 4.80
5 Lions vs. Reds Feb 08 Lions 10.40
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 08 Stormers 5.00
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 Jaguares 7.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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