October 3, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.69 14.78 3.90
Wellington 9.62 -1.62 11.20
Taranaki 8.28 7.04 1.20
Tasman 4.19 9.54 -5.40
Otago 3.93 -0.34 4.30
North Harbour 3.39 -1.27 4.70
Counties Manukau -0.67 5.70 -6.40
Auckland -0.73 6.11 -6.80
Manawatu -2.55 -3.59 1.00
Bay of Plenty -3.03 -3.98 1.00
Waikato -3.41 -0.26 -3.10
Northland -4.57 -12.37 7.80
Hawke’s Bay -13.02 -5.85 -7.20
Southland -22.74 -16.50 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Sep 27 32 – 30 -4.90 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 28 40 – 26 6.80 TRUE
3 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 29 33 – 30 24.20 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 30 20 – 25 -18.60 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 30 38 – 19 3.50 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 30 37 – 17 27.40 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 01 27 – 24 10.50 TRUE
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Oct 01 25 – 16 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Oct 04 Tasman 4.80
2 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 Manawatu 2.10
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 Canterbury 14.40
4 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 Otago 11.00
5 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 07 Northland 12.40
6 Southland vs. Wellington Oct 07 Wellington -28.40
7 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 08 Tasman 8.90
8 Waikato vs. North Harbour Oct 08 North Harbour -2.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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