NRL Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.14 | 16.73 | -3.60 |
| Panthers | 4.52 | 2.64 | 1.90 |
| Dragons | 4.48 | -0.45 | 4.90 |
| Sharks | 1.08 | 2.20 | -1.10 |
| Wests Tigers | 0.77 | -3.63 | 4.40 |
| Broncos | 0.76 | 4.78 | -4.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 0.54 | -3.90 | 4.40 |
| Roosters | 0.53 | 0.13 | 0.40 |
| Raiders | -0.30 | 3.50 | -3.80 |
| Cowboys | -0.85 | 2.97 | -3.80 |
| Warriors | -1.39 | -6.97 | 5.60 |
| Eels | -2.48 | 1.51 | -4.00 |
| Bulldogs | -3.14 | -3.43 | 0.30 |
| Sea Eagles | -4.72 | -1.07 | -3.70 |
| Knights | -6.82 | -8.43 | 1.60 |
| Titans | -8.45 | -8.91 | 0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Apr 19 | 0 – 6 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Dragons | Apr 20 | 20 – 12 | -2.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Storm | Apr 20 | 20 – 34 | -8.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Apr 21 | 42 – 22 | 1.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Apr 21 | 20 – 22 | 12.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Apr 21 | 26 – 14 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 22 | 44 – 10 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Apr 22 | 26 – 22 | -1.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | Dragons | 7.00 |
| 2 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | Storm | 19.00 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | Apr 26 | Rabbitohs | 2.80 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Apr 27 | Sea Eagles | 5.10 |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Apr 27 | Panthers | 10.70 |
| 6 | Titans vs. Sharks | Apr 28 | Sharks | -6.50 |
| 7 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Apr 28 | Cowboys | 2.40 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 29 | Wests Tigers | -0.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Check the result of game 5, round 7
6 years ago
Thanks very much for noticing this problem Mark. I have updated the results after modifying my code.
This season I have been obtaining the results of each round automatically from a website instead of copying them in by hand. The code I used for transferring the new results to my file of results was in error. Hopefully it is now fixed and working correctly.
6 years ago