Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 12.08 | 7.47 | 4.60 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.26 | 7.99 | 2.30 |
| Wasps | 5.74 | 5.89 | -0.20 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.90 | 4.64 | -0.70 |
| Bath Rugby | 0.96 | 1.23 | -0.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 0.89 | -1.73 | 2.60 |
| Gloucester Rugby | -0.73 | 0.21 | -0.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -1.34 | -3.33 | 2.00 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.90 | 1.53 | -3.40 |
| Harlequins | -3.08 | 0.84 | -3.90 |
| Worcester Warriors | -4.72 | -4.37 | -0.30 |
| London Irish | -6.62 | -4.94 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 27 | 33 – 25 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 28 | 34 – 19 | 12.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 28 | 20 – 43 | 2.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Apr 28 | 44 – 13 | -0.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Apr 29 | 14 – 51 | -14.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 29 | 36 – 29 | 11.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. London Irish | May 05 | Bath Rugby | 10.60 |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 05 | Exeter Chiefs | -10.30 |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps | May 05 | Wasps | -4.10 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors | May 05 | Northampton Saints | 5.80 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | May 05 | Leicester Tigers | -0.00 |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby | May 05 | Saracens | 15.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »