Super Rugby Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 17.13 | 17.67 | -0.50 |
| Hurricanes | 7.86 | 9.43 | -1.60 |
| Chiefs | 4.80 | 8.56 | -3.80 |
| Highlanders | 2.98 | 4.01 | -1.00 |
| Sharks | 2.90 | 0.45 | 2.50 |
| Lions | 2.37 | 8.28 | -5.90 |
| Waratahs | 0.81 | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| Jaguares | -1.09 | -0.26 | -0.80 |
| Stormers | -1.09 | -0.39 | -0.70 |
| Bulls | -1.20 | -3.79 | 2.60 |
| Brumbies | -1.26 | 0.00 | -1.30 |
| Blues | -1.76 | -3.42 | 1.70 |
| Rebels | -2.61 | -7.26 | 4.60 |
| Reds | -5.73 | -8.19 | 2.50 |
| Sunwolves | -13.11 | -16.08 | 3.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 53 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Hurricanes | Apr 05 | 28 – 31 | -1.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Stormers | Apr 05 | 24 – 12 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Apr 05 | 5 – 42 | 8.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Brumbies | Apr 06 | 36 – 14 | 22.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Blues vs. Waratahs | Apr 06 | 32 – 29 | 1.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rebels vs. Sunwolves | Apr 06 | 42 – 15 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Jaguares | Apr 06 | 20 – 22 | 4.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Apr 12 | Crusaders | 17.60 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Stormers | Apr 12 | Rebels | 2.50 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Blues | Apr 13 | Chiefs | 10.10 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Lions | Apr 13 | Brumbies | 0.40 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Jaguares | Apr 13 | Sharks | 8.00 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Reds | Apr 13 | Bulls | 8.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Is 62.3% a good percentage on forecasts to place a bet? this is almost half. and the probability of losing is the same as the probability of winning. But every player who makes a bet expects to win. Is it possible to increase the accuracy of forecasts?
5 years ago
This is a very unusual Super Rugby season so far, and an unusual NRL one also. For a number of years I have been able to achieve a success rate for Super Rugby, a little over 70%, while for the NRL, it has been hard to get much more than 60%. So far those positions are reversed. It may be the practice of leaving players out to ensure they are not fatigued going in to the World Cup. If you look at results so far, you will see a lot of changes in form from last year (Lions, Chiefs, Bulls, Rebels, Sunwolves), and changes in results from week to week. Those circumstances wreak havoc on any system based primarily on past form.
As for increased accuracy, sport results which are not rigged are always going to include a random element. Bet on them if you wish.
5 years ago