NRL Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 10.31 | 8.72 | 1.60 |
| Storm | 7.71 | 6.03 | 1.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 4.73 | 3.89 | 0.80 |
| Raiders | 3.65 | 1.81 | 1.80 |
| Sharks | 2.53 | 3.90 | -1.40 |
| Dragons | 0.87 | 0.06 | 0.80 |
| Broncos | 0.30 | 2.63 | -2.30 |
| Eels | -0.15 | -6.17 | 6.00 |
| Cowboys | -2.16 | 0.15 | -2.30 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.33 | -5.61 | 3.30 |
| Warriors | -2.49 | -0.27 | -2.20 |
| Panthers | -2.59 | 0.93 | -3.50 |
| Titans | -3.50 | -3.36 | -0.10 |
| Bulldogs | -4.57 | -0.61 | -4.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.74 | -5.57 | -0.20 |
| Knights | -8.57 | -8.51 | -0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Apr 18 | 24 – 20 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 19 | 6 – 14 | -6.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Storm vs. Roosters | Apr 19 | 20 – 21 | 0.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Cowboys | Apr 20 | 10 – 17 | 6.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 20 | 12 – 10 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Titans vs. Knights | Apr 21 | 38 – 14 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Apr 21 | 26 – 22 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 22 | 51 – 6 | 2.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Apr 25 | Roosters | 12.40 |
| 2 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | Storm | 14.70 |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Apr 26 | Bulldogs | 0.60 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 26 | Rabbitohs | -4.30 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Apr 27 | Wests Tigers | 0.80 |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | Broncos | 0.80 |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Apr 28 | Raiders | -3.00 |
| 8 | Knights vs. Eels | Apr 28 | Eels | -5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
When it says Eels -5.4 does that mean it predicts them to win by 5.4? If so why are they minus but Roosters for instance are 12.40 not -12.40?
5 years ago
The prediction column gives the margin expected for the home team. If positive (Roosters, 12.40) the home team is expected to win by that margin. If negative (Eels, -5.40) the home team is expected to lose by that margin, that is the away team wins by that margin.
5 years ago
If it is -5.4 for Eels, how should a score stands after a Eels win.?
5 years ago
If the Knights score n points then I expect the Eels to score n + 5.4 points, and yes that is impossible as a score line but it is an expected value which can be non-integer even if scores are integer values
5 years ago