July 9, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.25 6.03 5.20
Roosters 6.61 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 0.49 -8.51 9.00
Sharks -0.43 3.90 -4.30
Broncos -1.30 2.63 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Dragons -1.46 0.06 -1.50
Warriors -1.78 -0.27 -1.50
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.12 -5.57 1.40
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 14 – 16 -11.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 16 – 24 -7.70 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 20 – 24 8.50 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 22 – 24 4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 12 Panthers 5.10
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 Knights 10.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 Rabbitohs 8.40
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 Broncos 5.00
5 Storm vs. Sharks Jul 13 Storm 14.70
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Roosters 12.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 14 Wests Tigers 0.30
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 14 Raiders -3.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »