Rugby World Cup Predictions for Week 1
Team Ratings for Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 27.60 | 27.60 | -0.00 |
| England | 19.78 | 19.78 | 0.00 |
| South Africa | 18.51 | 18.51 | 0.00 |
| Wales | 12.72 | 12.72 | 0.00 |
| Ireland | 12.12 | 12.12 | -0.00 |
| Australia | 8.70 | 8.70 | -0.00 |
| France | 7.11 | 7.11 | 0.00 |
| Scotland | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.00 |
| Argentina | 4.15 | 4.15 | 0.00 |
| Fiji | -5.27 | -5.27 | 0.00 |
| Japan | -7.67 | -7.67 | 0.00 |
| Italy | -8.57 | -8.57 | -0.00 |
| Samoa | -11.89 | -11.89 | -0.00 |
| USA | -16.38 | -16.38 | -0.00 |
| Georgia | -17.43 | -17.43 | -0.00 |
| Tonga | -20.46 | -20.46 | -0.00 |
| Canada | -32.45 | -32.45 | 0.00 |
| Uruguay | -35.67 | -35.67 | -0.00 |
| Russia | -36.78 | -36.78 | 0.00 |
| Namibia | -41.80 | -41.80 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Week 1
Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan vs. Russia | Sep 20 | Japan | 35.60 |
| 2 | Australia vs. Fiji | Sep 21 | Australia | 14.00 |
| 3 | France vs. Argentina | Sep 21 | France | 3.00 |
| 4 | New Zealand vs. South Africa | Sep 21 | New Zealand | 9.10 |
| 5 | Italy vs. Namibia | Sep 22 | Italy | 33.20 |
| 6 | Ireland vs. Scotland | Sep 22 | Ireland | 6.70 |
| 7 | England vs. Tonga | Sep 22 | England | 40.20 |
| 8 | Wales vs. Georgia | Sep 23 | Wales | 30.10 |
Publication Schedule
I aim to publish RWC predictions on a schedule which ensures that team ratings have been calculated using all prior results. With 5 teams per pool and 4 pools, only 8 games can be played without the necessity for a team to play twice and that is how the pool games schedule appears to have been arranged. I thus intend to publish new predictions after each group of 8 games. There may be some variations in when I publish because I am currently on a cycling holiday in Europe.
For the NRL and Mitre 10 Cup predictions, I aim to publish on a Tuesday each week as usual.
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Where do your initialisation values come from?
They don’t seem to reflect 2019 form
5 years ago
They are based on exponential smoothing using data on all international games since 1995. Initial values in 1995 were take to be zero.
Exponential smoothing updates the ratings after each game so that past results become less and less influential as time goes on.
5 years ago
Looks good. Will you be doing predictions for all games on this site please?
5 years ago
Yes.
5 years ago
Hi David,
Thank you for your work, highly appreciated
5 years ago
Unfortunately a bit late for me to submit my picks for the local competition, cheers for week 1 anyhow
5 years ago
100% success rate to date David. You picked all of the winners. When do you think you’ll make your next round picks?
5 years ago
I aim to post after each bracket of 8 games. Subject to me having hotel wifi available while cycling from Bratislava to Budapest this week.
5 years ago
My office championship is riding on this, please be safe and spend more to get wifi lol
5 years ago
Greetings from South Africa David. Thanks for your predictions, I’m looking forward to following them throughout. Take care on your cycling trip.
5 years ago