Posts from October 2019 (25)

October 31, 2019

Briefly

Opinion poll reporting

From the Herald: Most Norfolk Islanders want to cut ties with Australia and join New Zealand – survey

The second sentence of the piece: “The rebels outnumber those who want free association with Australia, with 37% of the vote compared to 35%.”

We don’t usually consider 37% as ‘most’.

With a little searching, you can find the primary source: the website of Norfolk Island People for Democracy  Most people who responded don’t like the current system, and they are roughly evenly split between full independence, a looser association with Australia giving local control of domestic affairs, or a similarly loose association with New Zealand.

Also, it looks like an online clicky poll.  We’d usually just dismiss these, but there were 450 responses and the Island has a population of only 1800.  If they took reasonable care to make sure the votes were one to a person and from the local population, the numbers are worth paying attention to.  Even if you made the extreme assumption that everyone who didn’t take part supported the status quo, 415 wanting to change it is a substantial fraction.

Burgers or air?

Q: Did you see that asthma inhalers cause as much greenhouse gas emission as eating meat?

A: Yes

Q: That’s huge!! It’s like 15% of global warming!

A: No

Q: Yes!

A: No. The BBC claim is that the CO2 equivalent of one person‘s use of asthma inhalers is comparable to one person‘s meat consumption. A lot more people eat meat than use asthma inhalers.

Q: Oh. That’s still quite a lot, though?

A: They say it’s about 4% of emissions from the UK healthcare system. About 0.15% of the UK total.

Q: And compared to meat?

A: Well, the BBC don’t link, but if you find the research paper (PDF) and follow its link for the meat claim, you get a graph saying about 0.9 tonnes CO2 equivalent per year for an average person switching to a plant-based diet in the UK, compared to the 165kg average they’re claiming for the inhalers (range of 150-400kg).

Q: Isn’t 165kg less than 0.9 tonnes?

A: Yes, quite a bit less.

Q: So why do they get away with that in a published research paper?

A: It’s not the point of the paper. The point is to look at the financial cost of the National Health System switching to asthma inhalers that don’t use greenhouse gases, for the subset of people who can use them.  The costs aren’t that bad. They also suggest other sensible ways to reduce emissions, such as recycling or incinerating used inhalers, and labelling them with the number of doses so that they don’t get discarded early.

Q: What are we doing about this in New Zealand?

A: A bit more than for meat.  There’s an actual plan to reduce total imports of these synthetic greenhouse gases starting now and going through 2036, but in the short term that’s mostly going to affect air conditioners, not inhalers. Pharmac asked for bids for asthma inhaler supply through 2023, and (earlier this month) proposed settling on two products with HFC-134a propellant, which is the less-bad of the two greenhouse gases currently used in inhalers. 

Q: If the point is financial costs, isn’t the comparison with meat just trolling?

A: Pretty much.  Eating plants is an individual choice, it’s not an all-or-nothing change, it doesn’t take a doctor’s prescription, and you don’t need to have asthma to do it.  You could just decide to eat less meat, or give up beef, or your whole household could eat less  meat. And eating less meat doesn’t have negative health implications.

Q: So people should just use their inhalers like their doctor says?

A: Absolutely.  Modern preventer inhalers are a major achievement of medical and chemical science.  For any individual, there should be many possible lifestyle changes higher up your priority list than worrying about your model of asthma inhaler.  Maybe get ready to lobby Pharmac to take emissions into account when they next put out a bid for inhalers,  in 2022 or thereabouts.

October 29, 2019

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.01 27.60 -0.60
England 23.20 19.78 3.40
South Africa 19.87 18.51 1.40
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 10.32 12.72 -2.40
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 19 – 7 -7.30 FALSE
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 16 – 19 -11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 New Zealand vs. Wales Nov 01 New Zealand 16.70
2 England vs. South Africa Nov 02 England 3.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.98 9.34 -0.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.04 7.99 -1.00
Northampton Saints 1.69 0.25 1.40
Gloucester 1.53 0.58 0.90
Sale Sharks 1.40 0.17 1.20
Bath 0.18 1.10 -0.90
Harlequins -0.29 -0.81 0.50
Wasps -0.98 0.31 -1.30
Bristol -1.42 -2.77 1.40
Leicester Tigers -2.51 -1.76 -0.80
Worcester Warriors -3.02 -2.69 -0.30
London Irish -6.39 -5.51 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 13 – 10 -3.10 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 35 – 16 8.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 25 – 9 5.90 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 22 – 17 5.80 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 7 – 41 -0.10 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 10 – 24 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 02 Bristol 1.70
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 02 Northampton Saints 6.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 03 Leicester Tigers 0.50
4 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 03 Saracens 19.90
5 Wasps vs. Bath Nov 03 Wasps 3.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 04 Exeter Chiefs -5.60

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.00 12.20 0.80
Munster 9.45 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 6.56 9.66 -3.10
Scarlets 4.02 3.91 0.10
Connacht 3.42 2.68 0.70
Edinburgh 2.57 1.24 1.30
Ulster 2.17 1.89 0.30
Cheetahs 0.66 -3.38 4.00
Ospreys 0.53 2.80 -2.30
Cardiff Blues 0.01 0.54 -0.50
Treviso -2.07 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -8.69 -9.31 0.60
Southern Kings -13.66 -14.70 1.00
Zebre -17.98 -16.93 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 28 – 12 15.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 23 – 14 8.60 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 18 – 5 -10.40 FALSE
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 36 – 30 19.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 24 – 22 10.90 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 0 – 3 -26.10 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 46 – 7 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Southern Kings Nov 02 Glasgow Warriors 26.70
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Nov 02 Leinster 28.20
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 02 Ulster 26.60
4 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Nov 03 Scarlets 9.90
5 Ospreys vs. Connacht Nov 03 Ospreys 3.60
6 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Nov 03 Treviso 1.90
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Nov 03 Munster -2.90

 

October 23, 2019

Publicise it while it still works?

This is from The Times. In fact, per the BBC, it’s the leading story on the front page of tomorrow’s Times, above Brexit.

The drug in question, aducanumab, had promising and widely reported early results. It was less widely reported that the definitive clinical trials were stopped early in March of this year, when it wasn’t doing any good.  The decision to stop was based on data collected through last December; after stopping, more data has rolled in. Biogen, the makers of the drug, are now claiming that the data accumulated since then show a benefit at the highest dose; the FDA have given them permission to apply for approval.  Here’s what has happened to their stock price

So far, no detailed data or analyses have been published. The New York Times story, which is a lot more chill, says that the results will be presented at a conference in December. A working drug would be genuinely important news, but putting it on the front page right now would be a bit premature even in a slow news week.

There’s a general pattern with drug breakthrough news, where the good news is presented with big headlines in the main body of the paper, and the bad news that walks it back is in the business section, with small headlines.  One long-term result is a misleadingly optimistic public view of new drugs, most of which aren’t breakthroughs.

 

 

Update: note that the post-good-news stock price jump was a lot smaller than the post-bad-news collapse, and the price fell over the day after the peak — the stock markets aren’t betting on this being a spectacularly successful drug.

October 22, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this weekend’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 28.74 27.60 1.10
England 21.46 19.78 1.70
South Africa 20.59 18.51 2.10
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 9.61 12.72 -3.10
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.7%.
Here are the predictions for last weekend’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 40 – 16 12.90 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 46 – 14 15.10 TRUE
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 20 – 19 5.10 TRUE
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 3 – 26 -18.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 New Zealand -7.30
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 South Africa -11.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.51 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 7.41 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 1.08 0.25 0.80
Gloucester 0.96 0.58 0.40
Bath -0.19 1.10 -1.30
Sale Sharks -0.20 0.17 -0.40
Harlequins -0.23 -0.81 0.60
Wasps -0.41 0.31 -0.70
Bristol -1.48 -2.77 1.30
Leicester Tigers -2.04 -1.76 -0.30
Worcester Warriors -2.40 -2.69 0.30
London Irish -4.79 -5.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 43 – 16 0.60 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 22 – 19 13.30 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 16 – 18 4.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 25 – 27 13.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 24 – 16 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 26 – 29 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 Northampton Saints 8.00
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 Gloucester 5.90
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 Harlequins 5.80
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Sale Sharks -0.10
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 Saracens -6.00

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 19.59 9.00 10.60
Canterbury 11.92 12.92 -1.00
Auckland 10.73 11.57 -0.80
Wellington 10.37 10.92 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 10.21 -4.82 15.00
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.09 -5.69 4.60
Otago -6.19 -1.49 -4.70
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -15.28 -11.67 -3.60
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 64 – 3 22.60 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 44 – 39 14.60 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 30 – 19 8.70 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 18 – 9 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 25 Bay of Plenty 15.30
2 Tasman vs. Wellington Oct 26 Tasman 13.20